Research: Ballot order can swing some elections

But having a last name such as Adams, Anderson or Atelski may help win elections in Indiana. Primary election ballots list competing candidates in alphabetical order and researchers have found voters often chose the first person on the list.

Called “ballot order effect,” it’s been a topic of study and political legend for decades. In the 2014 primary in Texas, the effect gave a definite boost to candidates listed first, according to Darren Grant, professor of economics at Sam Houston State University.

“Ballot order can have a consequent effect on the vote shares that different candidates get,” said Grant, the study’s author.

“In some of the lower information contests you can get a ballot order effect that is about 10 percentage points,” he said.

That finding is in line with other research, he said. Studies have repeated found can help swing elections, especially close ones. Voters often have little knowledge about “downballot” candidates, Grant said. A 2015 study by Barry Edwards, a political scientist at the University of Central alphabetically order ballots Florida, found “states that disproportionately elect candidates with early alphabet surnames.”

Edwards said his study, which focused on state legislative races, challenges the prevailing belief that ballot order affects only minor elections.

Terre Haute attorney Chris Gambill is one of three candidates in the Democratic primary for 38th District state Senate. Both of his opponents appear on the ballot before Gambill. Neither Maria David nor David Fuchs II have taken part in any of several candidate forums covered by the Tribune-Star. Gambill is not accusing anyone of ballot gamesmanship. He does not know either of his opponents and has not spoken with them, he said. “We want everybody to run for office who is interested in running, but there are enough complaints about the sordid history of Terre Haute and games being played in elections,” he said. “It does not speak well for the character of anyone who is a part of that.”

Chuck Hanley, who recently retired as city clerk after 35 years in office, said candidates have run solely to take advantage of ballot order and pull votes from others but the practice rarely wins elections.

Fuchs said attorney Mike Ellis, a family friend, approached him about running for office after he lost his job at Sony DADC.

“I was taken up to the Statehouse to fill out for the election, but that’s all I know,” Fuchs said.

David, who works at Ellis’ law office, did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this story or the Tribune- Star’s primary election

guide. Ellis denied seeking out anyone to run for state Senate, saying he only “consulted with people who were interested in running.”

But he agreed ballot position is important, especially in races where voters have little candidate information about candidates.

That’s often the case in local races, he said. He cited the 1978 election of then City Clerk Andy Atelksi as Vigo County sheriff with no law enforcement experience.

In largely Democratic Vigo County, winners of the party’s primary often go on to win the general election, though not as frequently in recent years. Republican Brad Newman won the county clerk’s office in 2016 and GOP Prosector Terry Modesitt is in his third term.

And something other than ballot order may also have been a factor in some cases.

Jim Adams won an at-large City Council race in 1991. He shared a name with a sitting Vigo County commissioner and also knew more people on his own than many realized, Hanley said.

Current Commissioner Judy Anderson was first elected to that office in 2000 when a different Judy Anderson was Terre Haute mayor.

Hanley doesn’t believe ballot position alone wins many elections.

More often, he said, it “boxes in” candidates. That may happen this year in the Democratic primary for the 43rd District state House seat, he said, where Norm Loudermilk is the middle of five candidates.

The combination of ballot order and name recognition may favor Mark Bird, Hanley said.

“People are going to see the list and say, ‘Who the hell am I going to vote for?’ and go for the first one, a known name,” he said. But being last on the ballot could favor Tonya Pfaff, who enjoys considerable campaign support, Hanley said.

How can ballot order effect be reduced or eliminated?

Some states, such as North Dakota, Grant said, rotate candidate names by precinct, giving everyone “more or less … an even share.”