ALEXANDRIA — Alexandria Community Schools is likely to lose enrollment over the next several years because of a lack of home sales to families with school-age children, according to a study commissioned by the district.
The district commissioned the report from Rock Hill, N.C.-based McKibben Demographic Research in preparation for the development of a facilities plan.
A number of factors, including low housing inventory, the possibility of higher interest rates and too few older residents downsizing affect the turnover rate of property in Alexandria, said Jerome McKibben, the company’s president.
“You have to understand this dynamic in order to understand your future,” he said.
Home sales are just one set of assumptions on which McKibben’s forecast is based.
He said even though potential homeowners with children may find Alexandria desirable, especially because of the reputation of its schools, they are unable to find suitable housing there.
One reason for that is the high proportion of empty nesters living there, McKibben said. That is driven by the high number of baby boomers and higher life expectancy.
“You need those households to turn over, the empty nesters to move out and young families move in,” he said. “Once your median age is above 40. It’s really hard to have enough people of childbearing age to keep your enrollment level.”
Most people, he said, aren’t inclined to downsize and leave their family home until their 70s.
“It’s not retirement that makes people downsize. It’s the death of one of the spouses,” he said.
The district also cannot count on the students it graduates to settle in Alexandria, McKibben said.
“Most of the people who move into Alexandria did not grow up here,” he said.
In fact, the “curse of successful school districts” also may be another factor that will lead to decreased enrollment, McKibben said, because a high rate of graduates go on to attend college and settle elsewhere.
“You don’t marry the boy or girl next door any more,” he said. “You marry the girl in the next dorm.”
Board President Kyle Williams said he was concerned about the district’s mobility rate among lower-income families.
“It appears that age group that’s doing that has kids in school,” he said.
However, McKibben said though mobility among low-income families is a very real trend, it is not enough to contribute to an appreciable spike or drop in enrollment.