Climate change is shaping our lives, and will continue to affect Hoosiers.
That’s the heart of the message Jeff Dukes and other members of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center are spreading to people throughout Indiana and in Washington, D.C., where Dukes recently briefed members of Congress and their staffs on the work being done at the research center.
“The temperature is changing, and we expect it to keep changing,” Dukes told an audience at the Wednesday Green Drinks event in Bloomington.
One of the projects being coordinated by the Purdue research center is the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment. People from across Indiana have been working together to compile reports that show how changing weather patterns will affect all aspects of life in Indiana. More than 100 people are involved in the assessment work, including 80 faculty members at Purdue University and about 10 at Indiana University.
Using historical data and 10 different climate models for future weather in Indiana, Dukes shared what has happened from the 1880s through 2016, as well as what’s expected to happen in the future. Model after model shows a sharp increase in the average temperature, seasonal changes in rainfall amounts and a change in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
“This recent change is so dramatic,” Dukes said of carbon dioxide levels. “There are huge changes in the environment.”
Dukes and the others want Indiana residents to understand what these changes mean, and to begin to prepare for those changes while doing what’s possible to lessen their severity. The assessment groups are working with two different climate change models, one that shows more severe changes and one that’s more moderate in its predictions.
Farmers across Indiana have increased production of crops, especially corn, and that has had a cooling influence, which has reduced climate change effects here — so far. Dukes said that by 2050, temperatures in Indiana will be “substantially higher.” Dukes predicted that by 2050, Indiana will have summer temperatures more like those now found in northeastern Texas and winter temperatures more like those of southeastern Virginia.
Besides facing warmer temperatures in both summer and winter, Dukes said, it’s the extremes and changes in Indiana’s seasons that will have the most impact, on everything from agriculture to tourism and from people’s health to water resources.
The Bloomington area has historically had 26 days annually with temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2050, it’s estimated the area will have 87 days per year above 90. Statistics show that Bloomington’s highest temperature of the year now averages 98 degrees. That number is estimated to be 107 degrees by 2050, and 112 by 2080.
Nighttime temperatures will also increase, according to the research. The Bloomington area averages about 23 days per year when the nighttime temperature is higher than 68 degrees. By 2050, there will be 68 nights with temperatures above 68 degrees, researchers say. Indiana’s humidity is also expected to rise, with dangerous summertime humidity typical of what southern Texas and Louisiana now face in the hottest months of the year. Those days of dangerous humidity will increase from the once in 10 years Hoosiers now experience to four to five days per year in southern Indiana.