Morton J. Marcus is an economist formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. His column appears in Indiana newspapers. His column appears in Indiana newspapers.
Alzo Incognito visited me in early January when the 2017 state population estimates were released. Therefore, it was no surprise to see him again last week when the county figures became available from the Census Bureau.
“How’d we do?” he asked. Before I could answer, he told me he got a job with Uplift Indiana, the “HappyNews Bureau.” “Don’t bother with any downer stuff,” he said.
I inhaled deeply and said, “57 percent of the counties in the United States gained population between 2016 and 2017. Indiana saw 60 percent of its 92 counties gaining population in that period.”
“Out-performing the nation,” he jotted in his notebook. “And those losing counties, they’re all rural places as folks head for the cities continuing the migration, the urbanization, of America which has been going on for 200 years,” he proclaimed.
I bit my lip. “No,” I whispered. “If you look at the six counties losing the most people- - Lake, Grant, Wayne, Delaware, Madison, and LaPorte, - - they’re all basically urban areas.
“Let’s get back to what counts as ‘HappyNews,’” he urged. “That was a great number you just gave me. Sixty percent of Indiana’s counties gained population in 2016-17.”
“Yes,” I confirmed. “But that was after six years, 2010 to 2016, where 58 counties lost population (that’s also 60 percent of all Hoosier counties). And of those 58 counties, only three (Putnam, Jasper and Noble) grew enough in 2016-17 to emerge with a positive change for the entire seven years.”
“You’re telling me,” Alzo said. “55 Indiana counties grew in 2016-17, but not enough to overcome the losses they had in 2010 to 2016? That’s not ‘HappyNews’!”
“Listen,” I told him bluntly, “if you can’t make that a ‘HappyStory’ you’ll fail in modern journalism. It’s not very difficult. Just say, ’55 Hoosier counties reversed course in 2016-17, overcoming a declining population trend.’ Now you’ll be able to be a speech writer, a press secretary, a media giant,”
“I see,” he said. “Good. Give me one more up-beat story.
“OK,” I said. “The Sizzling Seven counties (Hamilton, Marion, Hendricks, Allen, Tippecanoe, Johnson and Boone)….
“Wait a second,” he burst in. “Why are they the Sizzling Seven?”
“Because each of them accounted for more than five percent of the change in state’s population over the past seven years,” I said. Together their populations equaled just 32 percent of the state in 2010, but they chalked up a total of 92 percent of the state’s growth.”
“Wow!” he exclaimed. “Just seven counties driving the state’s entire growth! And that’s the bottom line?” Alzo asked.
“Right,” I said. “Indiana’s population is getting more concentrated in a few counties, while simultaneously most of our counties are losing population. Hoosiers must rethink and make tough choices about many of our economic policies. That’s not ‘HappyNews’ for our political leaders.”