KOKOMO – Population numbers released last month show a decline in Kokomo, but city officials and real estate industry leaders maintain that the city and Howard County are experiencing growth in numerous areas – specifically housing development.
Kokomo lost 212 residents from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelly School of Business.
Kokomo’s population on July 1, 2016, was estimated to be 57,799.
The estimates also show that Greentown lost 25 residents during the same time period, while Russiaville lost two people.
However, the Census Bureau data notes the unincorporated area of the county saw an increase of 226 residents. That means Howard County as a whole lost only 13 residents from 2015 to 2016.
Local officials have had trouble explaining how the unincorporated part of the county saw a major jump in population while the rest of the county experienced a decrease.
In fact, a negative trend has been experienced in Kokomo since the gathering of 2010 population data, when the last official U.S. Census count took place.
After an estimated increase of 68 residents from July 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011, that number dropped to 11 in the 2012 Census Bureau data, and to 8 in 2013.
Kokomo then lost 23 residents in 2014 and 101 in 2015 (all estimates reflect annexation).
The decline from 2010 to 2016 amounts to 249 residents, or .4 percent of Kokomo’s population.
In relation, Kokomo’s population trend is better than cities like Anderson and Muncie and comparable to Terre Haute and Evansville, but well behind cities in the “Indianapolis donut area,” as Mayor Greg Goodnight called the region in a recent interview.
Suburban Indianapolis communities like Carmel, Noblesville, Fishers and others have experienced steady growth since 2010.
“I don’t want to get hung up on year-to-year, but I would say this: when you say over the last six years, the difference is .4 percent, less than one-half of one percent, that’s pretty good,” said Goodnight. “Compare that to Anderson, Muncie, Huntington, all these other communities.
“I think we are having some [success] because we’re doing better than others.”
Matt Kinghorn, a senior demographer with the IBRC, explained in an interview the method of developing annual numbers and noted the negative population trends being experienced in the north-central and east-central parts of the state.
The process starts with an estimate for the county, and officials then develop that with what are called administrative records, he said, noting that estimates rely heavily on the 2010 “head count.”
Administrative records include birth and death records, migration estimates and other populations like college dormitories and prisons, according to Kinghorn. Annual surveys are then completed with local governments about certain data, including housing permits, and applied as accurately as possible.
Kinghorn, who acknowledged that 212 is an estimate and “not a number you want to take to the bank,” explained that Kokomo’s population decline is representative of “mid-size communities that were once industrial backbones.”
Now, growth is confined to specific regions of Indiana, most notably metro areas that have more diversified economies and are attracting young adults, he said.
“I think it’s a concern not just in Kokomo but in large swaths of the state. I think that Kokomo is in the middle area of concern,” said Kinghorn.
However, city officials, who have made no secret of their attempts to diversify Kokomo’s economy away from a longtime reliance on the auto industry, pointed to home-building figures in their skepticism of the most recent Census Bureau release.
According to numbers provided by Goodnight at a meeting Thursday of the Kokomo Early Risers Rotary Club, Kokomo has seen an increase in recent years in single-family housing building permits.
In 2014, officials granted 71 such permits, and in 2015 granted 74. That number jumped to 104 in 2016.
And through June 2 of this year, there have been 51 single-family housing building permits granted, according to city figures.
Single-family construction also has seen a steady increase in county areas during the same time period.
In relation, Realtors Association of Central Indiana President Cherie Smith said Howard County is considered to be a seller’s market due to a lack of housing inventory, meaning there are more buyers than sellers.
Smith attributed the housing market’s position to low interest rates and a strong economy that has seen housing prices jump back to where they were roughly a decade ago.
And while Smith hasn’t had an influx of clients moving to Kokomo from other communities, she highlighted the positive impact she believes the housing market has had locally.
“Absolutely it’s a good thing for the community,” said Smith. “If you’re looking at just the new construction, taking those vacant lots and building new homes, it builds morale in those neighborhoods, or even those subdivisions.
“It builds a tax base, and it allows the county to bring in more tax dollars, because you’re going from a vacant lot to a fully-built home.”
The average price for newly-constructed homes in Howard County in 2016 was around $220,000, according to Smith.
During the Rotary Club meeting, Goodnight also highlighted the city’s housing developments and their ability to attract residents.
According to Goodnight, numerous developments are fully leased, including The Residences at Washington Street, Annex of Kokomo (the apartments next to Indiana University Kokomo), JCF Residences at Wildcat Creek and The Lofts at Union Street.
City data showed that the Kingston Square apartments are 99 percent leased and the Apperson Way Apartments 75 percent leased.
Such data was not provided for other apartment complexes in the city, many of which saw an influx of residents following last year’s tornado and subsequent closure of Park Place Apartments.
Goodnight also made note of incoming developments, many of which are headed by private developers, like the $32 million mixed-use luxury apartment complex 306 Riverfront District, set to open in the summer of 2018.
Alongside others, Goodnight spoke briefly about the Market Street Townhomes, a development behind the new YMCA of eight townhomes, three condos and retail space. So far, two condos and two townhomes have sold, according to city officials.
In conjunction with new housing, Goodnight addressed one of his administration’s main governing philosophies, and highlighted his oft-referenced focus on creating walkable neighborhoods and eliminating suburban sprawl.
“When you make your city more walkable, that creates a healthier environment. When businesses look to locate, they look at our workforce,” he said.
“What they look at is the age of the workforce, they look at the health rankings in the community. They look at the education attainment level. Those are the things they look at because it’s about talent attraction. That’s what we’re trying to focus on – talent attraction.”
Later, Goodnight made the case that attracting residents to Kokomo will in return lead to increased job availability.
“It used to be that people would follow jobs, and in studies it’s been proven that it’s the other way around. Businesses follow the people; it’s not people following jobs,” he said.
One challenge for local officials, though, is improving Howard County’s commuter numbers. Slightly more than 9,000 people chose to work in Howard County but live in another county, according to 2015 data from STATS Indiana.
In comparison, only 4,562 people did the opposite, commuting to another county but living in Howard County.
It’s a topic, and concern, that’s discussed often by Goodnight in public speeches and presentations. But the commuter problem is also one about which he expresses optimism.
“I know we’re doing the right things, because if you look at the cities that are – if you go by these numbers – that are outperforming us, if you look at what they’re doing, they’re doing the same things we’re doing,” he said, referencing cities like Fishers, Noblesville, Lafayette and others.
“They’re just doing more of it.”