INDIANAPOLIS — Chad Kinsella remembers when his fellow Muncie residents used to vote for Democrats like former U.S. Senators Joe Donnelly and Evan Bayh. He remembers when people elected Democrats for county and city council seats.
But not anymore, noted the political science professor at Ball State University. Indiana Republicans won every local, state and federal race except one in November’s midterm election.
“Delaware County, where I am, used to be super purple,” Kinsella said. “But old Rust Belt places like Madison and Delaware counties have gone much more Republican over the last couple of years.”
Across the nation, the red wave predicted for the midterms didn’t happen. Democrats bucked long-time trends, maintaining control in the Senate by winning hotly contested races in states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona, and losing fewer seats in the House than expected.
But in Indiana, the red wave washed across the state unimpeded, clearing away any remnants of Hoosier land’s purple past.
Republicans not only won every state-level seat, but also won nearly every race in St. Joseph, Howard and Madison counties, where Democrats once had a winning chance. Republicans also easily maintained their supermajority in both chambers at the Statehouse.
Indiana hasn’t been this red since the 1950s, when for six years Republicans held every state and U.S. Senate seat, as well as nearly all of the state’s U.S. congressional seats. After the midterms, the state is set to match that record.
It begs the question: How did Indiana, once considered a battleground state, become a Republican stronghold?
Tom McDermott Jr., the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate who was handily defeated in November by incumbent Todd Young, has a theory: National Democrats have abandoned Hoosiers.
In his “Left of Center” podcast, the Hammond mayor argued he and other Democratic candidates were “sacrificial lambs” offered up by the party and its leader, President Joe Biden.
“They didn’t give a s-about Tom McDermott and the senate campaign, and that filters through the entire ticket to races we could have won,” he said.
McDermott specifically pointed to the Indiana Secretary of State race, in which Diego Morales won despite being fired twice from that office and facing accusations that he committed voter fraud.
He argued more support from the national party for his senate race could have helped candidates like Destiny Wells, a lawyer and Army Reserve lieutenant colonel, who lost to Morales despite raising $116,000 more than him in campaign contributions heading into November.
“I feel like they don’t even want to help us, and we’re trying to win here,” McDermott said. “Isn’t that what the national Democratic Party is all about? We’re trying to win in a state that doesn’t usually vote our way, and we’re getting no assistance at all?”
That gels with political scholars’ research showing the Democratic National Committee started reducing its support for down-ticket races in rural states in the 1990s, according to Fabio Rojas, an Indiana University sociology professor who specializes in politics.
“The amount of attention given to these state races is just very small these days compared to the past,” he said.
Over time, that inattention has eroded the party’s clout and presence in Indiana, Rojas argued. Fewer Democrats in positions of power means up-and-comers interested in running have no mentors and no chance to cut their teeth in the political world, creating a death spiral for the party, he explained.
“Like Evan Bayh’s people, what happened to them?” Rojas asked. “The people he groomed as legislative aides and whatnot, they should be the next generation of Democratic politicians pulling up votes in the bigger towns around here. But where are they?”
Political Science Professor Kinsella said the party’s decline in Indiana led to midterm results that once would have been hard to imagine. He pointed to the 1st Congressional District that encompasses “The Region” in northwest Indiana, where voters have elected a Democrat to the House every election since 1931.
That didn’t change this year, but the margin of victory did. Incumbent Frank Mrvan defeated Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green by 5.6 percentage points — the smallest margin since 1956.
“It was competitive,” Kinsella said. “And I’m old enough to remember way back in the day when no Republican would even dream about winning there.”
The state’s red wave isn’t just about the decline of the Democratic Party, though. Republicans have made races competitive by recruiting strong candidates who are attractive to voters, Kinsella noted.
“You have to give credit where credit is due,” he said. “The Indiana Republican Party has done a really good job.”
Rojas agreed, adding that the GOP is more willing to get into the nitty-gritty politics required to win local and state races. Republicans are also more willing to put up candidates in every race, even if there’s a good chance they’ll lose. Having candidates — even losing ones — on the ballot builds up the party, he argued.
“Democratic candidates don’t seem to have that attitude,” Rojas said. “It’s just hard to persuade Democrats to run in those races.”
But politics in Indiana is just like the weather — give it some time and it’s sure to change, Kinsella said. Voting trends, demographics, candidate popularity and party politics are constantly shifting, leading to election results that no one sees coming.
“It’s just kind of the ebb and flow of politics,” he said. “Some of these Midwestern states like Ohio and Indiana that used to be more battleground states, given their populations right now, the appeal is for Republicans.”
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