Editor's note
This week we learn from Gene Tempel, Founding Dean of the IU Lilly School of Philanthropy, about current federal actions and the philanthropic world. Will foundations with bulging pockets be forced into divesting more for current good works or can they continue to keep the future in mind? Hear it all on the Who Gets What? podcast, available at mortonjohn.libsyn.com.
Where do the flacks working for the State and the IEDC get their training? They seem to have never learned how to disguise bad news behind good numbers and be truthful.

For example, by now most Hoosier politicians have been able to find something good to say about the county population losses reported after Covid. Between 2019 and 2023, 36 of Indiana’s 92 counties lost 14,600 persons.

But those numbers are trivial. Only 2 of those 36 counties lost more than 2% of their population and only Marion lost more than 1,000 persons. And that loss (5,600) was made up by the gains of the donut counties.

In all, the state had 100,400 more residents in 2023 than before Covid in 2019. But what does the loss of population mean?

Some population losses are deaths of those born before and during the post-WWII baby boom, people who, as a group, had much better lives than their parents.

Some are children moving away from Indiana for college or a job. Those are growth activities that we want for our children. The idea that children should return to where they attended high school is a selfish, parental concept that denies children their freedom. Those who choose freely to return should not be celebrated more than those who make their adult lives elsewhere.

Both the dying and the departing groups normally would not be expected to contribute much to GDP growth, either because of retirement, incapacitation, absence from the area, inexperience or school enrollment. A population decline based on these factors could, and possibly should, increase real per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product adjusted for inflation).

Statewide, per capita GDP grew by $4,100 (7.5%), with growth being recorded in 77 of the 92 counties. Among the 36 counties where population declined, 32 saw per capita GDP increase.

Where were the flacks to trumpet these advances? Marion County’s population loss of 5,600 persons coincided with a $13,200 increase in per capita GDP, a 13.6% increase, a rate approaching twice the growth rate for the state.

If we sought problem spots in these data, we could point to 8 of the 15 counties with declines in per capita GDP. Ohio, Putnam, and Adams each saw per capita GDP fall by more than 3%; Decatur, Ripley and Jasper had decreases between 6% and 9%; most serious was the 17% drop in Spencer and the 25% collapse in Pike County. Except for Pike, which lost only 162 persons (1.3%), they all grew in population.

In many cases, the flacks should know the specifics for each county. Pike is coal country and under pressure for new activity to replace the losses in that industry. Defensive public relations requires knowing how to transform bad news into the jolly TV news so much appreciated by political personalities.
Morton J. Marcus is an economist formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. His column appears in Indiana newspapers, and his views can be followed his podcast.

© 2025 Morton J. Marcus

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