HOBART — Northwest Indiana's economy is outpacing the rest of the country, an economist said during the Indiana University Kelley School of Business's Futurecast event Friday at Avalon Manor.
Indiana University Northwest Business Professor Anthony Sindone said the Calumet Region's economy has grown 37% since the coronavirus pandemic first hit. Northwest Indiana's gross domestic product has grown by about 6% a year since 2020, or about 4.5% after factoring in inflation and other factors.
"We're doing better than the rest of the country," Sindone said.
Nationally, the economy should grow at a rate of 1.8% this year, Indiana Business Research Center Research Director Timothy Slaper said. Only China and India are likely to see faster rates of growth, and even their growth rates have tapered off over the last 10 to 15 years.
"The growth in the Eurozone is going to be less," Slaper said. "The growth in the United Kingdom is going to be less. The growth in Mexico and Brazil is going to be less."
Health care, manufacturing and retail remain among the top employers in the Calumet Region, Sindone said. But only a few industries in Northwest Indiana pay as much as it takes to afford a median house in Northwest Indiana, which he estimates requires a salary of about $75,000.
Only health care, primary metal manufacturing and managerial work pays enough to afford a median priced home in the Region, raising concerns about affordability, Sindone said. But 65% of prospective homebuyers in the Region already own a home, so it's more of an issue affecting younger people, including recent college graduates.
"Buying a house right out of college is difficult to do," he said. "People start out renting until they progress in their career and income. Perhaps we should consider having some patience."
In Northwest Indiana, Sindone forecasts the labor force will grow by 0.4%, employment by 1.8%, wages by 4% and income by 2.5% next year. He predicts the unemployment rate will fall between 4.5% and 4.9%.
Over the next five years, Sindone forecasts the gross regional product will grow by 2% to 3% annually due to growth in the transportation, logistics and advanced manufacturing sectors. He believes employment growth will fall between 0.5% to 1% a year, resulting in labor shortages in health care and construction. Household income will rise slowly as a result of manufacturing wages and Illinois transplants.
The housing inventory will continue to grow while affordability will be a concern, but also a comparative advantage when compared to such places as neighboring Illinois.
Indiana Business Research Center Director Carol Rogers noted that real gross domestic product grew 2.6% statewide as compared to 2.1% nationally. Indiana's unemployment rate is expected to rise moderately from 3.6% to 4.4% next year.
"The pharmaceutical industry continues to be the remarkable star of the state of Indiana," Rogers said. "We'll continue to see jobs and higher wages in that particular industry."
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