The new legislative plan to keep Indiana’s prison population down was agreed upon by Democrats and Republicans alike: Keep low-level offenders out of prison by offering rehabilitation and treatment locally while reserving prison space for more violent criminals.

But results of an independent study released this month indicate that while no jail and treatment for some offenders will lessen the flow of prisoners into the state penal system, a provision requiring most inmates to serve three-fourths of their sentences instead of the current half will keep prisons full.

State Rep. Matt Pierce, D-Bloomington, said the study forecasts a worst-case scenario that he and others do not share. He expects that judges will reduce sentences as the new guidelines allow, and that there will be many fewer offenders returning to jail because of intense local programs to keep them on the right path.

That, he said, will balance out against longer sentences for more serious lawbreakers. Under Indiana Department of Correction guidelines, prisoners serve just half of the time a judge sentences them to if they abide by prison rules, and they can get more time shaved off by completing education programs.

The new law, which takes effect July 1, contains a “truth in sentencing” aspect that will result in inmates serving three-fourths of their time instead of just half.

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