27% of Vanderburgh County residents 70 and older haven't received even 1st dose of vaccine

"That's exactly why we're vaccinating those people," said Indiana University Northwest economics professor Micah Pollak, one of the state's leading COVID-19 researchers.

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Other states have included some essential workers, such as teachers, in their early priority groups for vaccination, but aside from health care workers and first responders, Indiana has focused on those most likely to fall severely ill or die from COVID-19. On Tuesday, the state expanded coronavirus vaccine eligibility to all Hoosiers 60 and older.

But an estimated 27% of Vanderburgh County residents in the 70-79 and 80-plus age groups — people who have been eligible for vaccination for about a month and a half — have not yet received even the first shot.

Jan. 7 marked the end of Indiana's vaccination "Phase 1A," a broad category including doctors, nurses, long-term care staff, cafeteria workers and other health care staff. On the following day, vaccine eligibility expanded to Hoosiers age 80 and older. People between the ages of 70 and 79 were added to the vaccine eligibility list on Jan. 13.

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U.S. Census Bureau data shows 21,187 Vanderburgh County residents — nearly 12% of the county's estimated population of 181,451 — are aged 70 or older.

As of Sunday, state COVID-19 vaccination data shows 15,566 local residents 70 or older have received at least a first dose of vaccine. That's 73% of 21,187, meaning 27% remain unvaccinated even with a first dose.

Vanderburgh County's 73% does represent a better showing than is being seen statewide, according to a data analysis performed by Pollak over the weekend. The researcher compiled county-specific ISDH data in each of Indiana's 92 counties to conclude that 64.4% of all Hoosiers over 70 had received at least the first dose of vaccine as of Saturday.

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"In theory, everyone over the age of 60 now is eligible, and there's no reason that they shouldn't and couldn't get vaccinated," Pollak said. "The fact is, not everybody has."

Pollak cited several possible reasons, including senior citizens being unable to make it to vaccination appointments and not having access to computers.

"Is it that they've chosen not to get vaccinated?" he said. "They may also be waiting to see how everyone else does. It has implications, too, if we're going to get to whatever that herd immunity number is, 70% or whatever it is."

Public education needed, local medical leader says

Dr. Heidi Dunniway, chief medical officer of Ascension St. Vincent South Region, pointed to the state's new Homebound Hoosiers vaccination program, which is intended to identify residents who are unable to leave their homes.

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"To address this gap, the Indiana’s Area Agencies on Aging (operating in 16 regions in Indiana), the Family and Social Services Administration (FSSA), Indiana Department of Homeland Security and (ISDH) are registering these people separately and directing resources to ensure they are prioritized for vaccination," a state news release said. "Any available vaccines in those communities are then routed to a participating EMS agency to visit the home, administer the vaccine and monitor for any adverse reactions."

Dunniway said such education and outreach efforts are needed.

"I don't know that the word is out to everyone who really needs to hear it, or maybe they need to hear the message a little differently," she said. "But it’s really critical to get as many as possible vaccinated."

Has vaccination made a difference for Vanderburgh's oldest residents?

It's not a perfect measure given that there are likely reasons for plummeting cases and hospitalizations other than vaccinations — the time that has lapsed since holiday celebrations and public adherence to safety precautions among them. But vaccination's impact can be extrapolated in statistical differences between cases involving Vanderburgh County's oldest residents before and after they became eligible.

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In the period of Jan. 1-7 — the week before vaccination opened to those older age groups — Vanderburgh County reported 1,172 total cases, according to case data found within Indiana's COVID-19 dashboard. Of those, 127 — 10.8% — were aged 70 or older.

Fast forward to the period Feb. 19-25, when Vanderburgh recorded just 145 COVID-19 cases. Only three of those were aged 70 or older.

Had there been no vaccination of local residents 70 and older and the pre-vaccination percentage of 10.8% had held, that age group would have accounted for 16 of those 145 COVID-positive patients. Instead, only three were over 70 — and three is 81% less than 16.

Vaccination is making a difference, Pollak said. But it must continue.

"You're going to need more people to be vaccinated than probably are vaccinating currently," the researcher said.