A return to growth: After decades of decline, Lake County sees seventh highest population growth in the state

The county's population peaked at just over 551,000 in 1971 and shrank little by little until a few years ago when it started to see an influx of new residents.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Lake County gained 2,346 new residents last year, an increase of 0.5%. It was among the fastest-growing of Indiana's 92 counties.

Since 2020, Lake County gained about 3,992 residents through last year, an increase of 0.8%, according to the Census Bureau. It's the second most populous county in the state with 502,955 residents.

"I would attribute the growth in Lake County's population to migration," Northwest Indiana Realtors Association CEO Pete Novak said. "Many residents are moving from out of state, particularly from Illinois, to Northwest Indiana."

Enough new people have been moving into Lake County to offset a natural population loss in which more people died than were born, Novak said.

"Lake County's population from 2015 to 2019 was pretty much flat, so I can only assume that this trend has only intensified in the past five-plus years that our population has been growing," he said. "The reason for the sustained growth is due to a much stronger business economy over the last decade, along with a lower cost of living and a strong quality of life and quality of place. This is particularly true for housing values and property taxes."

Lake County experienced the seventh highest population growth year-over-year in Indiana last year, Indiana University Associate Professor of Economics Micah Pollak said.

"This is a continuation of a trend for positive and accelerating growth which has significant implications following decades of population stagnation and decline. Northwest Indiana has always been a region to draw in new residents, but we are becoming better at keeping them," he said.

That migration across the state line has been ongoing, but Lake County itself had been losing ground to Porter and LaPorte counties to the east as people sought a lower cost of living, lower taxes and more housing for the dollar. People were moving away from Lake County to places like Valparaiso, Portage and the Duneland area.

"Many of those moving into Lake County come from the Chicago area in search of more affordable housing and lower taxes," Pollak said. "But these features alone have not been enough to keep residents here. Population in Lake County declined as this inflow was offset by residents leaving faster, often moving further east into Porter and LaPorte counties."

However, the bleeding has been stopped in the last few years as Lake County's economy has diversified beyond its traditional manufacturing base. Lake County has been doing a better job of holding onto its residents, due to improvements in the economy and quality of life, Pollak said.

"In recent years, we've seen dramatic improvement in quality of place in Lake County, which has stemmed this tide of residents moving away, and largely been responsible for turning population growth around," he said. "Across the county there has been a unifying focus on improving quality of place through improvements in arts, entertainment, recreation, shopping, dining and a wide range of other amenities, making Lake County more attractive as a long-term place to live."

Along with St. John, Cedar Lake and Winfield, Crown Point has been one of the fastest-growing communities in Lake County in recent years.

"With respect to the growth of Crown Point, my belief is that people and businesses see our city as a desirable community to be a part of," Mayor Pete Land said. "Our city excels in areas that are important to residents looking to move to, work in or open a business: those being neighborhoods, a strong school corporation, great public safety and plentiful quality of life amenities."

Population growth brings cities and towns more property tax revenue but also drives up costs, requiring municipalities to provide more services to a wider geographic area, Land said. More roads, sewers and other infrastructure are needed to keep up with new development.

"The benefit of growth is we are able to leverage that increase in our city's assessed valuation for funds to help pay for the ever-increasing costs the city has maintaining many parts of our current infrastructure," Land said. "A challenge is to control the growth at a rate that it does not outpace the city's resources and ability to provide the needed services."

Lake County has been suffering from natural population loss for the last four years for the first time due to broader demographic shifts in an aging society, Indiana University Demographer Matt Kinghorn said. But it's been gaining residents fast enough from migration to still grow.

Lake County has been seeing growth, especially with new home construction in St. John, Cedar Lake, Hanover Township, Merrillville, Schererville, Crown Point and Winfield, said Jennifer Parham, the CEO and owner of Lighthouse Realty and past president of the Indiana Association of Realtors.

People are moving as far south as Lowell as they look to get more bang for their buck while buying new, Parham said. 

"Lake County continues to grow of course," she said. "You've got good schools and people coming close to the border. Merrillville has four or five new townhouse communities. Olthof and Providence Homes are building in Schererville. In Crown Point, the building has gone down some but not much. You're seeing a lot of new construction in Winfield and near Interstate 65."

Hammond has been seeing a steady migration but is waiting for the next official U.S. Census count in 2030, Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. said. Anytime he talks to new residents they tell him they moved from Illinois.

"Lake County is growing at the expense of Illinois," he said. "We're fortunate to be growing and that a lot of businesses are coming to our neighborhood, but we also need Chicagoland to be strong and have a strong future. It bites both ways. If Chicago gets hollowed out, that's not good for us."

Cities like Hammond, Gary and East Chicago were originally built out to handle more residents and had seen their populations decline as deindustrialization took place and people migrated to the suburbs, McDermott said. But they're positioned to absorb new residents while faster-growing communities like St. John in south Lake County may see more growing pains like traffic congestion, overcrowded schools and retail lagging behind the number of new rooftops being built.

Over the next 50 years, Northwest Indiana will become more congested as the population grows, McDermott said. Property values will also rise.

"The long-term ramifications are good for Northwest Indiana," McDermott said. "It's better to be growing than dying. I don't want the growth to come too much at the expense of Illinois but I'm the mayor of Hammond and that's not my job. As mayor of Hammond, I love it when new homeowners and businesses are coming."