Bartholomew County’s economy expanded in 2024 at its fastest rate in three years, outpacing statewide and nationwide growth as manufacturing output reached its highest level in roughly a decade, according to new federal data.

The county’s real gross domestic product grew 3.9% in 2024, its highest annual growth rate since 2021, according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By comparison, Indiana’s real GDP grew 3% in 2024, while U.S. real GDP rose 2.8%.

Real GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within a region after accounting for inflation.

Durable-goods manufacturing accounted for the bulk of Bartholomew County’s growth, increasing 6.3% from 2023 to 2024 to its highest output level since 2014, the data shows.

Durable goods are “tangible products that can be stored or inventoried and that have an average life of at least three years,” according to the bureau. Some of the most common durable goods produced in Bartholomew County include engines and automotive components.

Experts said the 2024 figures show a “wonderful uptick in manufacturing” but cautioned that the county’s heavy reliance on a single sector of the economy leaves it especially vulnerable to economic swings.

“Manufacturing is just a lot more volatile (than other sectors), said Steven Mohler, assistant professor of management at IU Columbus. “…So, when we have good times, we have really good times. And when we have not-so-good times, we have really bad times.”

Manufacturing reliant

Few communities in the nation depend on durable goods manufacturing as heavily as Bartholomew County, according to the bureau.

In 2024, durable goods manufacturing made up 48% of Bartholomew County’s real GDP — 18th highest in the nation among more than 3,100 counties, the data shows. The sector also drove 76% of all real GDP growth in the county in 2024.

By comparison, durable goods manufacturing accounted for 15% of Indiana’s real GDP in 2024 and 5.4% of U.S. real GDP.

“Manufacturing has been our lifeblood since Clessie Cummins,” Mohler said, referring to the co-founder of Cummins Inc., which is the largest employer in the county. “…We’re still heavily tied to transportation overall, and those areas seem to react significantly more than others when you have economic events.”

A flat decade

Despite the 2024 growth, durable goods manufacturing in Bartholomew County has been largely flat over the past decade on record, a sharp contrast with the rapid growth the sector experienced in the previous 10 years.

Durable goods manufacturing surged 94% in Bartholomew County from 2005 to 2014, ranking 194th highest among all U.S. counties for growth during that period. But from 2015 to 202, growth slowed, ticking up 0.6%.

In 2024, the sector generated an inflation-adjusted $3.4 billion, slightly below the $3.5 billion recorded in a decade earlier. Overall, output has declined in seven of the past 10 years on record.

Durable-goods manufacturing has seen some dramatic swings over the past 20 years. Between 2004 and 2008, durable goods manufacturing output grew an average of 18% annually. After the Great Recession, it rebounded with a 52% surge in 2010 and continued expanding at roughly 9.6% per year through 2013. But from 2014 to 2024, the sector contracted at an average rate of 1.2% per year.

Experts have said in the past that the stagnant growth in the sector may reflect shifts in the industries that local manufacturers serve, including softening auto sales and relatively flat demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

A shortage of skilled labor could also be playing a role, experts said. The Bartholomew County’s labor force peaked in 2015 and has yet to return to the same levels, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

More recent contributing factors include the lingering effects from COVID-19 supply-chain disruptions, and a weak North American truck market, which has slowed amid tariffs and uncertainty over emissions regulations, experts said.

Because Bartholomew County’s economy is heavily tied to automotive manufacturing — including engines and components for medium- and heavy-duty trucks — downturns in freight activity can ripple through the local economy. Reduced orders for trucks and fleet upgrades often translate into lower demand for products made by local manufacturers, including Cummins, a major supplier of engines and components across North America.

“It seems like some of what we may be experiencing is related to the transportation industry,” Mohler said. “…Are we in a transitional period, or are we seeing actual changes to the transportation industry? That has to be concerning.”

“We’re very volatile, but (the 2024 data) shows just a wonderful uptick in manufacturing,” Mohler added. “Now the question is will it continue?”

The last time the county recorded two consecutive years of 6% or higher real GDP growth in durable-goods manufacturing was 2012 and 2013.

Optimism

At the same time, Mohler said he is optimistic that the durable goods manufacturing could start to grow as it did before 2014, pointing to somewhat more diversification in the local economy.

While the sector accounted for 48% of real GDP in 2024, that was down from 57% in 2013, when Bartholomew County ranked as the nation’s third most reliant local economy on durable goods manufacturing.

In recent years, three food manufacturers have announced plans to build production facilities in Bartholomew County, including Ninth Avenue Foods, King’s Hawaiian and Grillo’s Pickles.

Cummins also said earlier this month that it expects demand in the North American on-highway market to be “slightly better” in the second half of this year. They also said they expect demand for its diesel generators to remain strong amid an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence — which is projected to channel hundreds of billions, if not more, into data centers — that has fueled demand for backup power systems.

“As we continue the efforts of our chamber, of our economic development folks and we diversify our manufacturing base, definitely I think we can go back to that,” Mohler said. “We can see nice growth, as we’ve seen it before. …Between Cummins and the diversification in Bartholomew County … I’m very optimistic.”
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