The Indiana State Budget Agency appears to have correctly predicted the wild swings in Indiana's monthly tax revenue since the start of the calendar year pretty much would even out by the June 30 end of the state's budget year.

New budget agency data show Indiana's general fund took in $17.5 billion between July 1, 2023, and April 30, 2024 — primarily sales and personal income tax payments.

Notably, that is 0.1% more than the revised general fund revenue estimate provided in December to the legislature and the governor, and just 0.2% less than the revenue forecast used by the General Assembly in April 2023 to craft the two-year state budget.

According to the State Budget Agency, approximately $400 million in state tax payments that typically would come in during April were made between December and March, in part to take advantage of state tax law changes enacted last year.

As a result, the agency noted the state's large revenue surpluses in prior months were offset by a $392.9 million, or 12.6%, shortfall in April.

"The bottom line is that we're still above our forecast with two months to go in the state fiscal year," said state Rep. Greg Porter, D-Indianapolis, the top Democrat on the budget-writing House Ways and Means Committee.

"The seesawing of revenue collections is concerning at first glance but wholly due to accounting matters. We still hope to meet the forecast and our economy is still booming."

Data show budget year-to-date personal income tax revenue is up $345.3 million, or 5.4%, compared to the same 10-month period during the 2023 budget year — notwithstanding a Jan. 1, 2024, reduction in the state income tax rate to 3.05% from 3.15%.

In contrast, revenue from the 7% state sales tax, Indiana's largest revenue source, has been practically flat on a year-over-year basis, according to the State Budget Agency.

One of the best performing revenue categories has been interest earned on the more than $2 billion parked in the state's budget reserve accounts.

Interest income so far has totaled $462.1 million, or $265.9 million more compared to last year, putting Indiana's overall general fund revenue on track to potentially meet or exceed 2% annual growth.

The money in Indiana's general fund is used to cover nearly all state expenses, including public and private education at all grade levels, public safety, health care, parks and just about everything else Indiana does.
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