More women candidates for state and federal offices will appear on Indiana ballots this year than at any other time in state history.
The question is whether any of them can win.
Nearly every female candidate this year is a Democrat running in a state where Republicans have held every state and U.S. Senate seat for six years. Indiana hasn’t been this red since the 1950s.
Indiana is just one of seven states that has never had a woman governor or U.S. senator, and the state legislature is only 27% female, noted Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political scientist at the University of Indianapolis.
“Traditionally, we have not excelled at having women in elected office,” she said.
THE HARRIS EFFECT
But that could change this year, in part because Vice President Kamala Harris is running at the top of the ticket.
Harris has generated a groundswell of excitement since she replaced President Joe Biden in August as the Democratic nominee for president. As the first woman of color to lead a major party’s presidential ticket, Harris is raking in historic amounts of campaign donations.
That energy could translate into a surge of Hoosier Democrats showing up at the polls to cast their ballots, perhaps boosting hopes for the cadre of down-ticket women candidates.
But it’s the issue of abortion access that could push some moderate Republicans to change their vote and cinch a victory for a female Democrat, speculated Rhea Myerscough, a political scientist at Butler University.
Harris’ pro-abortion stance is one of her most effective campaign messages, and the issue could motivate some who aren’t keen on voting this year to show up at the polls, Myerscough explained. If Indiana’s women candidates can harness that message, it could lead to a win.
“If the Harris campaign keeps this as a salient issue and these down-ballot races can also hit those same notes, I think we could see these Democratic candidates outperform what we might expect,” she said.
That playbook worked in 2022, when the red wave predicted for the midterms didn’t happen. Nationally, Democrats bucked long-time trends, maintaining control in the Senate and losing fewer seats in the House than expected.
Many political analysts attributed the surprise victory to the fear and anger many women felt after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, giving states the authority to control abortion access.
Indiana became the first to use that power to ban the procedure. In particular, Jennifer McCormick, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate running against Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, could see a boost in support from those who want the ban lifted, argued Myerscough.
A poll conducted in May by , an abortion-rights political action committee, found 64% of surveyed Hoosiers believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 58% believe Indiana’s current abortion ban is too restrictive.
Many of McCormick’s TV ads highlight her pro-abortion stance while attacking Braun for his anti-abortion position.
“The extent to which they are competitive candidates against the Republican opponents in this deep-red state, is the extent to which they can … effectively use reproductive rights as kind of a wedge issue to convince more moderate Republicans to switch their vote,” Myerscough said.
PARTY MATTERS MOST
But Wilson, the University of Indianapolis political scientist, argued that the issue of abortion access, even when coupled with the opportunity to vote for a female candidate, won’t be enough for a Democrat to overcome a Republican opponent.
That’s because, above all, voters cast ballots for candidates from their party, regardless of gender or even policy, she explained.
“We think gender is the predominant characteristic or feature of the candidate, and it almost never is,” Wilson said. “Partisanship is typically cited by voters as the most important influence on how they cast their ballot.”
That doesn’t bode well for U.S. Senate candidate Valerie McCray and Attorney General candidate Destiny Wells, explained Carly Schmitt, a political scientist at Indiana State University. Both women are facing off against well-known incumbent Republican men with large campaign chests.
“Even though you may be excited about voting for a woman, if that person is not in your party or on your side, you’re not going to switch parties and vote for them,” Schmitt said.
That means Indiana will most likely need a Republican woman to break through the state’s history of electing only men as governor and senator, she explained.
THE GENDER DIVIDE
But even electing a Republican woman could be difficult, argued Wilson, considering that the Indiana GOP hasn’t promoted or prioritized female candidates for the state’s top positions.
A case in point came when Indiana Republicans rejected Braun’s choice for lieutenant governor — state Rep. Julie McGuire — and instead nominated Micah Beckwith, a podcasting pastor with far-right views.
In the primary, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch had a chance to become the first woman governor, but Braun’s name recognition made him the natural frontrunner who coalesced support from the party.
The lack of women candidates may not have much to do with gender, though. Wilson noted it might stem mostly from the state party’s deep bench of well-known male candidates who offer compelling paths toward victory.
“When you have many strong candidates, it’s going to make it harder for a woman seeking those offices, especially when she’d be seen as the different or divergent candidate compared to your norm,” she said.
But the party does hold some responsibility to diversify its list of candidates, Wilson argued. Republicans hold political power in the state, giving them more say and influence on which candidates they will promote.
Meanwhile, the opposite is happening in the Democratic Party.
Democrats are far more comfortable than Republicans embracing gender politics and promoting diversity. That helps explain the historic number of female Democratic candidates, Schmitt explained.
Many entered politics at every level in 2018 in response to Trump’s presidency, she argued. Now, a rising number of women are sitting on city councils and school boards, and some are moving up to run for more high-profile positions.
Although those candidates may not win in November, Wilson noted, the fact that more women than ever are on the ballot this year indicates the state might not be far from electing its first female governor or senator.
As Hoosiers become more accustomed to seeing a diverse slate of candidates, it’s easier to cast a ballot for them, she noted.
“This provides an incredible opportunity for voters that want to see more female representation,” Wilson said.