It’s snowing lightly in the forest outside my window. These are small flakes of no apparent serious concern for brick and mortar retailers or the highway department. I’m sure the National Weather Service (NWS) has advised the radio and tv stations of this. It’s not an unusual event as calendars are turned from November to December.

The more aggressive media outlets will have interrupted your regularly scheduled programs for this “BREAKING BULLETIN….Snow on its way! Details on the hour!”

When I was young, Agnes, our next door neighbor, would have explained the falling flakes as angels’ dandruff. Likewise, when a summer thunderstorm growled its way through the heavens, Agnes would describe it as the angels bowling with potatoes.

In the cosmos-according-to-Agnes, the angels were very busy. She explained what we observed. She didn’t make any forecast.

Weather, as many of us believe, is changing. Earth is experiencing climate change. Weather, the daily manifestation of the climate, also shows increasing temperatures and more tempestuous events worldwide.

The previous paragraph, however, might be smashed against the reactionary rocks by the hurricane force of Project 2025. That infamous battle plan for the incoming administration would diminish the activities of the NWS and its parent agency NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

Specifically, the NWS and NOAA would be charged with collecting data, but prohibited from forecasting weather and climate events. Instead, forecasts and their dissemination would be the province of private firms.

Why?

· The usual argument: the private sector could do it better.

· The article of faith: the private sector would do it for less money.

· The authors of Project 2025 believe the NWS and NOAA support the idea of climate change and terrorize the public with biased forecasts.

This proposed governmental reorganization would mean a proliferation of forecasts sold by companies catering to their clients’ preferences. It would mean the FOXation and MSNBCing of the daily weather report.

Yes, we can hear the catcalls of the Free Marketeers: “Rational consumers would soon drive persistently erroneous forecast producers from the marketplace.”

How many economic forecasters can you name who have been driven from the marketplace? How many sports forecasters are dismissed for their “wrong picks?” Know any crop “experts” that have bitten the dust?

Storms and floods, droughts and fires are serious matters. The public and most businesses require accurate forecasts. We now check the weather forecasts on our cellphones. We’re not checking with the old guy suffering with his lumbago. Woolly worms are not as often consulted, as they once were, by the skiing community for snowfall forecasts.

But then, Project 2025 is supposed to be our pathway to prior greatness. I may need to get Agnes’ insight on where the angels fit in to all this.
Morton J. Marcus is an economist formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. His column appears in Indiana newspapers, and his views can be followed his podcast.

© 2024 Morton J. Marcus

-30-