Those familiar with the HBO show “The Wire” recall the efforts of Baltimore police and city officials to fix numbers in order to falsely show a reduction in crime.
While we’ve all heard that “The Numbers Don’t Lie,” the series shows that statistics can be rigged to show outcomes that aren’t true. It’s a fictional illustration of how political pressure can result in a false narrative – a scenario that’s a reality in our nation at the local, state and federal level.
We’re witnessing a version of this after President Donald Trump abruptly fired U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Aug. 1 following the release of a dreary jobs report. The report showed only about 73,000 jobs were added in July, and also included corrections to the May and June totals reducing the total number of positions added by about 260,000. Not good news for an administration that consistently touts its economic prowess. In typical Trump fashion, the president called the report “rigged” and nominated E.J. Antoni of the Heritage Foundation as McEntarfer’s replacement. As noted in dozens of media reports, Antoni has long been a critic of the BLS and also contributed to the controversial Project 2025 conservative playbook.
Despite Trump’s claims, the economy isn’t “booming.” It’s actually softening, according to many economic experts.
Uric Dufrene, Sanders Chair in Business at Indiana University Southeast, has tracked economic indicators for decades. He recently wrote in a column that, excluding the pandemic recession, the last three months have accounted for the weakest job growth since the Great Recession of 2007-2009.
Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and an economics professor at Ball State University, wrote in a column this month that four of the six indicators used for predicting a recession turned negative between March and April. He predicted that the remaining two — employment and industrial production – will turn negative by the next release of data.
Hicks and Dufrene both pointed out that manufacturing payrolls have declined, and that’s certainly not good news for Indiana.
Trump wants to present his own narrative. Instead of acknowledging that his tariffs aren’t working and are leading to confusion and chaos, he blamed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not reducing interest rates. He didn’t like the numbers in the BLS report, so he fired the organization’s commissioner.
This an example of why political influence can be detrimental to business and government. Markets have for years depended upon BLS analysis. Appointing a puppet to tell the nation it’s sunny outside while we’re drowning isn’t leadership, it’s dangerous and insulting to our intelligence.
Economic decisions should be based on facts, not political narratives. The data is clear — our labor market is stagnant and inflation continues to take a toll on consumers. Appointing “Yes Men and Women” won’t improve the economy nor will it change the fact that many Americans are struggling.
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