BP forecasts renewable energy will be largest source of power by 2040

BP predicts energy used in buildings and industry will account for three-quarters of the increase in energy demand over the next two decades as the world continues to electrify. The company expects the world's population will increase by about 1.7 billion to 9.2 billion by 2040, with developing countries contributing 80 percent of the world's economic growth over that period.

Energy use worldwide will grow by an average of 1.2 percent per year, down from 2 percent over the past 20 years, according to the BP Energy Outlook for 2019.

U.S. energy consumption will drop by an estimated 1 percent by 2040, but the United States is expected to maintain its position as the world's biggest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas. BP predicts that America will become entirely energy self-sufficient by 2020.

BP estimates the the share of renewables in the U.S. fuel mix will grow to 18 percent by 2040, up from 6 percent today. Renewables are expected to surpass coal in the United States in the late 2020s, and natural gas demand to surpasses oil demand by the 2030s.

"U.S. energy production as a share of consumption is projected to rise from 89 percent in 2017 to 115 percent by 2040," BP said in the annual report. "Renewables, including biofuels, see the largest growth increment of any fuel, growing by 4.9 percent per year. Renewables surpass coal as the secibd largest source of power generation by fuel input in the late 2020s and nearly equal natural gas by 2040."

BP forecasts renewables will grow by 200 percent, natural gas by 54 percent and oil by 35 percent in the United States by 2040. Coal is expected to decline by 37 percent and nuclear power by 46 percent over that period.

Overall U.S. energy production will grow by 29 percent, mostly for end use in buildings, industry and non-combusted uses like lubricants, solvents, construction materials, and chemical feedstocks.

BP foresees consumption of fuel for transportation in the United States is expected to fall by 15 percent by 2040 because of greater efficiency and more hybrid and electric vehicles.