EVANSVILLE — Indiana farmers can expect more of the heavy rains, earlier springs and hotter summers that have played havoc with crops if climate changes continue unchecked in the coming decades.
But a report released Tuesday from the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, points to ways farmers can adapt.
"Hoosier farmers can, and will, adapt to Indiana's changing climate," according to the report. "The types of crops, timing and frequency of plantings, need for irrigation and drainage, effects on weeds and pests and effects on labor will all have to be taken into account."
Climate change will directly and indirectly impact agriculture, a $31 billion-a-year industry for Indiana, affecting everything from row crops and livestock to fruits and vegetables.
In the three years that Tim and Kristi Schulz have owned and operated Engelbrecht's Orchard in Evansville, they have already struggled with the effects of warming temperatures and extreme weather conditions.
"It's something I've thought about. The first few summers we saw much earlier ripening dates than published for different varieties," Tim Schulz said. "I attribute that to global warming, in general."
Heavy precipitation in early spring this year delayed planting of new tree stock ordered from the nursery, he said. Then that was followed by unseasonably hot temperatures, it affected the new trees.
"That heat basically baked those young trees. That unique spike (in temperature) this spring was really noticeable," Schulz said.
The early, frequent rains also made it difficult to put down fungicide without it washing away, he said.
Warmer overnight temperatures already have contributed to reduced corn yields over the last decade in Indiana, according to the Purdue report. Corn yields in that time decreased about 2 percent for every one degree of overnight temperature increase in July.
Heavy rains in June 2015 destroyed 5 percent of Indiana's corn and soybean crop, a $300 million loss. Drought and extreme heat during the 2012 growing season reduced Indiana corn yields by 64-bushels per acre and resulted in more than $1 billion in crop insurance payments to Indiana farmers.
Abnormally warm early spring temperatures followed by seasonal April freezes devastated Indiana apple crops in 2007 and 2012.
While no single weather event can be specifically said to have been caused by climate change, those examples of weather-related losses typify what Indiana farmers can expect with more frequency in years ahead as the state's climate shifts, said the report's main author, Laura Bowling, a professor of hydrology and water resources at Purdue.
"We do project those risks to continue increasing if farmers continue with business as usual," Bowling said. "However, these are risks that can be managed."
According to the report, by mid-century climate change effects will include:
- More frequent heat stress and water deficits that could reduce corn yields 16-20 percent and soybean yields 9-11 percent
- A frost-free season shortened by about a month
- Earlier winter dormancy in perennial fruit trees and vines, meaning crops may flower earlier before the risk of frost damage has ended
- Higher temperatures that will put Indiana livestock at increased risk of heat stress reducing productivity and fertility
- Decrease in the quality of forage for livestock and poultry
- Increased winter and spring precipitation that could lead to nutrient loss from farm fields
- Warmer winters, wetter springs and hotter summers could increase weeds, pests and disease
"The climate has already changed, and it will continue to change, and if we just keep going on as normal, we are going to run into some problems. We are going to be at greater and greater risk of losing money if we stick with the status quo," said Jeffrey Dukes, the center's director.