It seems improbable that Vigo County could see its population grow to its highest level ever — 115,000 residents — in just the next three years.
Currently, 106,153 people live here, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The county population peaked at 114,528 in 1970. Topping that with the addition of 8,847 residents by 2027 seems like a long shot.
After all, demographers project the Terre Haute metropolitan area’s population will decline by 5.4% from the 2010 to 2050 time period. The impact is already being felt here, with the Vigo County School Corp. enrollment slipping from 16,420 students in 2006 to fewer than 14,000 now. Some local schools have closed as a result.
That’s happening everywhere in Indiana, right?
Bartholomew County’s population hit an all-time high of 84,000 last year. The main reason is that Columbus area employers are recruiting international workers for unfilled jobs — most of them highly skilled and good-paying, the Columbus Republic reported.
So, population declines aren’t necessarily inevitable. Other Hoosier counties may follow the Columbus region’s lead, at least counties hoping to grow.
While the decades-long debate over illegal immigration has rekindled intensely again, as such politically flammable topics always do in presidential election cycles, the levels and positives of legal immigration get overshadowed.
A report in the July-August issue of the Indiana Business Research Center’s INContext publication explains the overall immigration picture for Indiana. Nearly 6% of the state’s population — 377,934 Hoosiers — were born outside the U.S., based on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Indiana’s percentage ranks 37th (in the lower half) among all other states. Fewer than one-third of those foreign-born residents — 110,000 — are undocumented, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by Pew Research Center.
The foreign-born population tops 10% in three Hoosier counties — Tippecanoe 11.8%, Bartholomew 11% and Marion 10.2%. In Bartholomew, many are employees with STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) skills working at companies such as Cummins, Toyota Material Handling and Columbus Regional Health, the Republic reported.
Among the 18 counties with overall populations of 100,000 or more residents, Vigo ranks 16th (near the bottom) with 2.9% of residents foreign-born, statistics from the Indiana Business Research Center show.
Immigrants make up fewer than 1% of the population of 14 counties, including Clay 0.8%, Parke 0.7%, Sullivan 0.6% and Vermillion 0.5% in west-central Indiana.
The background of Indiana’s immigrant population is changing. Forty-two percent of foreign-born residents overall are from Latin America and 35% Asia. But the largest percentage of Hoosier immigrants since 2010 are Asia-born at 43%, compared to 31% from Latin America. Also, the growing number Africa-born immigrants now comprises 10.5% of Hoosiers, with European-born immigrants at 10.4%, according to the IBRC, a unit of Indiana University Kelley School of Business.
The education levels of foreign-born Hoosiers might surprise some. It’s a mixed picture. About 26% of immigrants in Indiana didn’t complete high school, while 9% of U.S.-born Hoosiers didn’t finish. However, 35% of foreign-born residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 28% of Indiana’s U.S.-born population, and 47% of Indiana immigrants who came to the country since 2010 hold college degrees.
As the Baby Boomer population ages, deaths are projected to outpace births nationwide by the next decade.
That’s already happening in Vigo County. From April 2020 to July 2023, a total of 3,773 babies were born in Vigo County, while 4,291 residents died, according to the Census Bureau. That’s a three-year drop of 518 residents. Vigo’s net in-migration of 458 newcomers — including 354 international arrivals — didn’t offset the natural decrease.
In the new INContext report, IBRC senior demographic analyst Matt Kinghorn anticipates that Indiana counties’ strategies for workforce growth will include efforts to recruit workers from beyond the U.S.
“Just looking at the big picture, as the state’s population continues to age, as the Baby Boomer generation continues to age, we’re expecting to see labor force growth slow significantly over the next 10 to 20 years,” Kinghorn said. “That’s not great news for our employers. As we move ahead, I think attracting young adults is going to play an increasingly important role for Indiana’s economy. And I think international migration will be a big piece of that puzzle.”
Terre Haute Mayor Brandon Sakbun, the son of Cambodian and Jamaican immigrants, said the positives of attracting talented foreign-born residents shouldn’t be tainted by the national political climate.
“Foreign-born residents bring unique perspectives to culture and community development,” Sakbun said last week. “Our population numbers have struggled the last few years in all demographics. We should welcome the opportunity to bring in professionals and hardworking individuals regardless of where they are born. Unfortunately, today’s political climate has turned the conversation of immigration into a divisive one. As the son of immigrants, it pains me to see how quickly some jump on the opportunity to label all foreign born Hoosiers as illegal immigrants. This is a country founded on immigration.”
Indeed, Terre Haute’s population stands at 58,502, down from 60,785 in 2010 and a peak of 71,786 in 1960. The city’s foreign-born population of 3.9% exceeds the county’s, but just barely.
The generally higher level of foreign-born Hoosiers with college degrees could be one tactic to help remedy a long-running concern around the state — brain drain.
A 2022 report from the Indiana Chamber of Commerce found that 29% of 18-year-old Hoosiers would finish college and stay in Indiana that year. As for the 60,370 graduates of Indiana colleges and universities in 2022, the report projected that nearly 40% would leave the state within a year of graduating, while more than half would go elsewhere within five years.
“The percentages of foreign-born Hoosiers with college experience is proportionally higher than US born residents,” Sakbun. “This is interesting because as a state we are struggling with retention of college graduates. As a state, we must have hard conversations surrounding our workforce development programs and university graduate retention. Foreign-born residents are a component of future successes in this space.”
Those hard conversations need to happen in Vigo County, too.
Already, employers and the local colleges play a role in drawing newcomers to Terre Haute. Strategies are in place to bring more talent to town, Sakbun said.
“Our universities play a large part in this by recruiting undergraduate and graduate students, as well as faculty,” Sakbun said. “Several of our largest employers are managed and led by foreign-born residents, so our business sector is doing their part in leading from this front. The recruitment of all residents is a priority for the administration. Improvements to quality of life opportunities, housing, and public education are just three of the tools we will need to utilize to do this.”
The community needs to grow and be prudent yet open-minded in making it happen.
© 2024 Community Newspaper Holdings, Inc.