Edward Lorenz — a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s — once asked the question “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”
His research was coined the “chaos theory,” an in-depth look at the interconnectedness of mathematical predictions as it relates to weather around the globe.
What happens “there,” could possibly affect life “here,” for instance.
And perhaps the same could be said for the novel coronavirus — also known as COVID-19.
Spreading from a region in Wuhan, China to six of the seven continents, the virus has certainly caused its share of chaos.
And what shut down large parts of the nation in March is still continuing to affect the nation in October.
In America in late October, the virus had claimed more than a quarter-million lives while infecting almost 9 million people. Here in the Hoosier state, over 4,000 people have died in connection with COVID-19, with nearly 170,000 infected.
And those numbers, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), are continuing to rise.
But there is a second virus on the horizon as well, which leaves many medical experts to worry about the upcoming weeks and months.
A duel-threat, they say, a possible perfect storm.
We’re heading into influenza season.
Two viruses at one time
“The what-ifs are the biggest problems right now,” Perry Gay, CEO of Logansport Memorial Hospital [LMH], said recently. “Us going into flu season, we don’t know what it’s going to be like.”
The CDC states on its website that while influenza can occur year-round, most of its peak typically occurs between December and February, with it even possibly reaching into early spring.
The agency also notes that in the 2019-2020 influenza season, over 400,000 Americans were hospitalized due to the virus, which also claimed 22,000 lives.
And though there is an influenza vaccine, there is no current vaccine for COVID-19.
This leaves some experts, like Gay and his colleague Tara McVay, a chief nursing officer at LMH, extra concerned.
With the already often strained levels of personal protection equipment [PPE], ventilators and hospital beds due to the COVID-19 crisis, McVay said she’s apprehensive that hospitals would be able to accommodate a surge in both viruses at the same time.
“We typically see the bulk of our patients in the fall and winter months with flu, so I think when you look at flu and people needing care, and then you put the COVID patients on top of that, it’s going to be hard on our healthcare organizations because of the volume of people,” McVay said. “So I think that’s what people are really concerned about right now.”
Dr. Michael Stennis, of Community Howard Regional Health, voiced those same concerns.
“COVID and influenza share some similar patient demographics,” he said. “They both impact the elderly or those with other medical conditions at quite a disproportionate amount. Of course, flu also impacts the very young patients, whereas COVID has seemed to right now spare the vast majority of children.
“The worrying part is that you’re going to have something that will exceed your capacity again and your ability to care for non-COVID or non-flu patients, as well as COVID and flu patients,” Stennis added. “… It’s possible that we could get the double whammy and be in trouble, but you just don’t know right now.”
But Stennis also said medical personnel can look at other countries — like those in the Southern Hemisphere where flu season has already taken place — and gauge severity that way, though that prediction is not always accurate.
“If you look at places like South America or Australia for example … they haven’t really seen the numbers [of influenza],” Stennis pointed out. “They’ve had a relatively mild flu season. The theory behind that is number one, vaccination, but also they have had more social distancing and mask use [due to COVID-19 restrictions]. So the thought is that if you’re utilizing those precautions and are also in vaccine compliance, hopefully we will have a less severe flu season here in the U.S.”
But still, as Indiana University Health epidemiologist and nursing director of the hospital’s Infection Prevention department pointed out, predictions are just that, predictions.
“I think it’s concerning having two viruses in circulation that can cause harm to people,” Kelley said. “… No one wants to see anyone get hurt or ill or die from any of these illnesses. In the winter, it’s thought that sometimes viruses can spread a little bit more because folks are in close quarters and inside more. … So that’s why everything is being tracked so closely right now heading into the winter months.
“The good news is that things like mask wearing can help both with influenza and COVID because they’re both spread the same,” Kelley pointed out. “If you are close to someone for an extended period of time that is ill with a respiratory illness, you can catch it by being in the same air space. … That’s why mask wearing is such a big prevention piece right now.”
But though all the experts interviewed agreed that many people are doing their part to help hospitals not exceed their capacity levels heading into influenza season, it takes all of us, they noted. That’s because COVID-19 is now entering a resurgence phase.
Rising numbers
“I just don’t know where the ceiling is right now,” Stennis said, when asked about the recent surges in COVID-19 cases plaguing over 40 states. “I’m just speculating that we’ll be hurting from here until the end of the year. … We’re just seeing so many widespread cases throughout the state and the country, and it seems like it’s rising faster than ever before.”
The daily average of cases of COVID-19 throughout the U.S. in mid-October topped 71,000, which was a 40% increase from the beginning of the month, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Many of the states seeing those spikes are in the Midwest.
Even in Indiana, recent numbers of cases in some areas of the state are surpassing what they were in the virus’ beginning stages.
“I think a couple concerns especially right now would be that you can see in the U.S., in the span of seven days recently, we saw 472,000 people get new COVID,” Kelley noted. “So that means 472,000 people are now infectious, and they are potentially spreading this to other people in their families and friend zones. And naturally more cases are just going to be the source for so many other additional cases.
“When it’s a faster and faster rate of growth, that’s dangerous,” she added. “Can you imagine us going to 100,000 cases a day in the United States? Can you imagine going to 1,000,000 cases a week? We can’t overwhelm our healthcare systems like that.”
Especially when the peak of influenza season is right around the corner, Kelley pointed out.
So what then can we do to help mitigate this surge? How can everyday individuals assist these healthcare personnel in the fight against COVID and an upcoming season of influenza?
Realize that we’re all on the same team, the experts said.
Preventative measures
“We have to proceed as if there’s never going to be a vaccine,” Gay said, when referring to the way individuals should think about COVID. “So what the public can do, and needs to do, is be mindful of the processes we have to engage in here. It might be a minor inconvenience for people to show up and bring their own masks. But a minor inconvenience is something we’re going to have to do to get through this thing.”
They’re simple acts, the experts said: wearing a mask, practicing social distancing and being aware of personal hygiene.
But they are really lifesaving tools in the fight against the pandemic right now and also for the weeks and months to come.
“Right now, I think the best thing you can do is try not to get COVID,” Stennis said, “as silly as that sounds to say that. Do your social distancing. Wear your masks out in public. And if by chance you’ve been exposed and are asked to quarantine, please do that responsibly.”
If there was ever a year to do it, get a flu shot, the experts interviewed said.
“I think it’s really important this year because it can really help us keep influenza low,” Kelley said. “There is a lot of safety data on the [influenza] vaccine, but there is also a lot of misinformation on it too. So read about it on reputable sites like the CDC if you’re still unsure, but I will say that vaccines help prevent millions and millions of lives from being lost.”
McVay agreed.
“The more people that are vaccinated against the flu, the more the numbers will hopefully stay low heading into the winter months,” she said. “And the lower the numbers of influenza patients, the more that helps the staff. There are so many ripple effects. I’ve always been a strong advocate for the flu vaccine, but this year, I’m calling for it even more.”