By Tom Lange, Truth Staff
tlange@etruth.com
ELKHART -- Elkhart County continues to lead the state in unemployment.
According to figures released Friday by the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, the county's unemployment rate for January was 18.3 percent, up from the December 2008 figure of 15.3 percent.
Elkhart County's December unemployment rate was amended to 16 percent after additional information such as delayed unemployment claims and surveys were factored in. LaGrange County was second among the 92 counties in Indiana with 18 percent of the work force unemployed in January.
The city of Elkhart's unemployment rate was 19.2 percent in January while Goshen's was 18.9 percent. The two cities lead the state in unemployment.
"This is a big jump," said Grant Black, assistant professor of economics and Indiana University South Bend.
Black estimated that from about 1990 to 2008, the county's unemployment rate stayed around 5 percent, sometimes going as low as 2.5 percent or as high as 9 percent. To see the rate rise by 3 percentage points in a month is a "phenomenal change," he said.
At one point, Black figured the county unemployment rate would peak at 12 percent to 15 percent. He now thinks the peak will come in the first half of the year.
Black believes businesses are in a holding pattern, waiting to see what action the government will take. He said some businesses have even had feelers out about hiring. But the turnaround is going to take time.
Even when the economy begins to show signs of healing it may take time before Elkhart County sees the effect, particularly in terms of recreational vehicle production. RVs are expensive, and potential buyers are running into a lot of trouble with financing. Long-term prospects for the industry look good, but it will take time for the momentum to shift, Black said.
Mark Bowersox also thinks there's potential good news for RV manufacturers. But he also thinks they'll have to wait before they see it.
Bowersox, director of recreation vehicles for Recreation Vehicle Indiana Council, said crowds are still turning up at RV shows. Attendance was down only slightly at a recent Fort Wayne show and was up at the Indianapolis show. He also said the traditional demographics of RV buyers are getting younger.
"There are people that are shopping and there are people out there buying and hopefully with some warmer weather that will continue," he said.
One of the biggest problems for the industry, he said, is financing. Manufacturers are building good, reliable products and there are people willing to buy them. The trick is finding a way for buyers to pay for the product.
"It's going to be real tough for RV manufacturers until the financing issue gets cleared up in Washington," Bowersox said.