Morton J. Marcus, an economist, writer, and speaker formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University
"Ah, summa is a'comin'," Fergus Flugal smiled.
"Yes," I said, "and with it will come more numbers and charts designed by TV meteorologists to terrorize us.
"Aye," Fergus affirmed.
"They'll have tornado alerts and heavy rain warnings," I said. "They'll flood us with high water forecasts, beat upon us with hail reports, and show us maps that make us abandon all outdoor activity while we glue ourselves to the TV."
"Tis so," nodded Fergus.
"Those weather people," I said, "are worse than economists when it comes to urging data on us," I insisted.
"Could be," Fergus said.
"No doubt about it," I replied. "It wasn't in the
papers or on TV, but just last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis issued their figures on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by state. These used to be called Gross State Product. They deserve attention, just as we need to know both the temperature and the humidity."
"And how be that?" Fergus asked.
"Indiana's GDP," I explained, "is the value of
all goods and services produced within our borders. It's the value added in Indiana by Hoosiers or anyone else working here or owning capital here. If it happens here, it's credited to us."
"Tis a simple enough idea," Fergus said. "Just record the price of a shipment at the loadin' dock," he continued, "and subtract what you had paid at the receivin' dock for what you needed to make whatever you been a'makin'."
"Quite right," I agreed. "And these new data show that Indiana's GDP grew on average by 4.5% from 1997 to 2006 while the nation advanced by 5.3%. In 2006 the difference was greater: 5.3% for Indiana and 6.3% for the U.S."
"And if it would not be unseemly to ask, what does that mean to me?" Fergus asked.
"Why it's so clear," I stifled my frustration. "It explains why we have low wages and out-migration concerns.
"Let me put it another way. In 2006, Indiana ranked 33rd in GDP per capita among the 50 states. That says 64% of the states (after adjusting for the population size of the states) put goods and services into the market that are more highly valued than are those sold by Indiana firms.
"In 2003 we ranked 29th in per capita GDP. During just the past four years we have been passed by Vermont, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Kansas. Farming pushed North Dakota ahead, but it was durable goods manufacturing that
worked for Vermont, Tennessee and Kansas.
"In six of the last nine years, including all three of the last three years, Indiana has failed to grow as rapidly as the nation in total GDP. We are becoming less significant as a part of the U.S. in both economic and political terms. We had 2.04% of US GDP in 1997 and our share was down to 1.89% in 2006."
"And that means to me?" Fergus asked again.
"That means we'll see fewer retail initiatives in Indiana. We'll see fewer firms and households interested in locating where 'nothing is happening'. It means we'll have less clout in national councils and eventually suffer the loss of still another member of congress."
"Couldn't be all that bad," Fergus said, 'Reminds me of global warming; it's been happenin' a long time and it ain't got me yet."
I gritted my teeth and walked away.