Those 26,480 jobs predicted from South Shore expansion come from, where?

That number has been bandied about since the Northwest Indiana Regional Development Authority released a study it had commissioned on the project (and the three other projects the state tasked to the RDA) in 2007.

But what does that number really mean? Where did it come from? Where will these 26,480 jobs be, and what kind will they be?

The answer is not that simple.

Computers offer answers

The Indianapolis-based firm that conducted the study, Policy Analytics, used a sophisticated economic modeling tool from REMI, a leading company in the field, to come to its conclusions.

REMI leases its proprietary software programs (for about $40,000 in this case) to governments, universities and economic analysis firms when they do these kind of economic projections.

"It's the Cadillac of modeling programs," said Bill Sheldrake, president of Policy Analytics.

Factoring in the present economic, population and transportation trends, the REMI model predicts what kind of impact the estimated $1 billion commuter rail investment will yield over the next 30-plus years.

The results, according to Sheldrake, will be spread across the Northwest Indiana economy.

"The jobs that result are, effectively, the jobs that result from the economy growing in the direction that it's growing. They're diversified jobs."

The state projects high regional job growth in areas such as network systems analysts and home health aides, as well as railroad engineers and heating and air conditioning mechanics.

Some of that economic growth is expected from a greater number of residents finding higher paying jobs in Chicago and bringing that extra income back home with them to spend. But another major part of the growth is expected from taking commuters off the roads and easing the area's congested roadways.

A 2001 study conducted by the federal Transportation Research Board shows that traffic congestion is a cost that businesses and residents both pay.

The study says congestion makes shipping goods costlier, which drives up prices; it makes driving to the store harder, which shrinks a business' market; it makes getting to work take longer, which reduces the employee pool a business has to choose from.

Ease that congestion, the report argues, and you free up time and money that can be spent on other things, including more employees.

But again, that boost is expected to emphasize existing trends.

"These jobs are not going to come in heavy manufacturing," Sheldrake said.

Uncertainty about costs

But the other aspect of the expected job growth is in transit-oriented development -- residential and retail development within walking distance of a transportation hub, like what is seen along Illinois' Metra line.

"If you do this right and take what people in Munster and Valparaiso are talking about, it's transit-oriented development -- a mix of everything in a livable, walkable community," said Justin Kitsch, spokesman for Rep. Peter J. Visclosky, D-Merrillville.

Vince Galbiati, president of the Northwest Indiana Forum, a regional business development group, said that while the statistical analysis can predict how many new jobs a rail development will support, it can't tell you what kind they will necessarily be.

That, he said, is up to each community.

"(Job creation) doesn't happen unless communities start with a plan," Galbiati said. "The type of jobs (created), that's where communities really have an impact. That's where politics really has an impact."

So what kind of jobs will they be? "Ask your mayor," Galbiati advises.

Is it worth it?

But with such uncertainty in the projections, and with such a high estimated price tag in a time is such tight budget constraints, many in Lake and Porter counties wonder whether this investment is worth it.

"We want to look at the numbers very closely," said Carmen Fernandez, a member of the Regional Development Authority, which is being counted on to pick up $150 million of the $1 billion project.

Fernandez, from East Chicago, told the RDA board in Indianapolis this week that she wants to be able to look at the effects of moving South Shore commuters from the north county to the south, and look at how the expense will affect the RDA's ability to fund other projects.

"It's just kind of accelerated. We thought we'd have time to study this, and we haven't."