After 13 months of growth, the recreational vehicle industry has hit a bump in the road.
September wholesale shipment numbers declined 4 percent from the total tallied in September 2009, according to data released Wednesday from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association. This is the first year-over-year dip since the shipments rolled into positive territory in August 2009.
However, Mac Bryan, RVIA vice president of administration, pointed out one month is not a trend. The industry is still expected to ship 240,000 units for the year, about 45 percent growth from the 2009 total of 165,000.
Overall, 2010 is pretty solid," he said.
An analysis of the recent shipment numbers by R.W. Baird & Co. echoed Bryan. The report cautioned against "attaching undue significance to data from a single month. The data tend to fluctuate from month to month."
Although travel trailers led all categories of units at 9,500 shipped in September, the number was still 15.9 percent below the amount sent in September 2009.
Class B motorhomes suffered the biggest loss at 50 percent, while folding camping trailers were next with a 22.2 percent drop.
A total of 1,200 Class A motorhomes were shipped in September, a 100 percent increase from the same month one year ago.
Shipments peaked in June at 27,100 units and have steadily fallen to the September total of 16,700. Bryan maintains this comes as the result of dealers buying for retail sales instead of stocking inventory as they were in the first half of the year.
R.W. Baird also noted shipment growth typically decelerates in the fall as retail sales slow and dealers keep tight controls on inventory levels into the winter. The analysts are expecting wholesale shipments to moderate.
Year to date, shipments continue to outpace 2009 by 59.4 percent.
The RVIA is forecasting shipments for the remaining months will reach 45,000. Then in 2011, the growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace, with the shipment totals topping at 260,000, Bryan said.
The RV industry will kick off 2011 with the National RV Trade Show in Louisville, Ky. With the industry already buzzing about new products, excitement for the event is building and adding to the positive outlook for the future, Bryan said.
“You’ll see more innovation this year,” Bryan said. “Manufacturers have a better financial footing so they are willing to make changes in design and floor plans.”