Indiana Republicans maintained their hold on state government on Tuesday, winning the races for governor, attorney general and U.S. Senate as well as retaining their supermajority in the Statehouse.
The hint of the red wave came at 7 p.m., Tuesday about an hour after the state polls had closed in the Eastern time zone counties of Indiana, when Sen. Mike Braun was declared the winner of the gubernatorial race. Despite some unexpected obstacles in the contest, Braun captured 53.9% of the vote over his Democratic opponent Jennifer McCormick’s 41.1%
McCormick, a former Republican who served as Indiana superintendent of public instruction before switching to the Democratic Party, ran a surprisingly vibrant campaign against Braun. She attracted so much attention and built such strong support that the Democratic Governors Association contributed nearly $1.95 million to help her become the first Democrat in more than 20 years to win the governor’s race in Indiana.
Also, Braun suffered a setback shortly after he won his party’s nomination when he failed to convince the GOP delegates to select his pick for lieutenant governor, Rep. Julie McGuire. Instead he had to run with Micah Beckwith, a self-proclaimed Christian nationalist, who stirred controversy by comparing the Indiana Democratic Party’s women-led ticket to the “Jezebel spirit.” In addition, Beckwith has said that as lieutenant governor he would fire staff members who include pronouns in their email signatures and that the Haitian immigrants who have legally settled in Logansport were invading the community and should be deported.
After Braun was declared the winner Tuesday night, Indiana Republican Party Chair Randy Head crowed about the victory and was optimistic about the state’s GOP leadership.
“Together Mike Braun, Micah Beckwith, and our Republican statewide officeholders will create a dream team of conservative leadership,” Head said in a statement. “Under Braun’s leadership, Indiana is poised to have one of the most efficient effective state governments in the country, ensuring growth, fiscal responsibility, and a commitment to the principles that make Indiana strong.”
Chad Kinsella, associate professor of political science at Ball State University, said Indiana Republicans not only solidified their hold on power but made some telling inroads. He noted nationally, majority minority counties, especially in the South that have long been Democratic strongholds have been shifting since 2016 and becoming red while the suburbs have been trending blue.
Indiana appears to be mirroring that change. Kinsella pointed to the presidential race as an example. Vice President Kamala Harris carried Lake County, as expected, but her margin of victory, 52.1% to Republican Donald Trump’s 46.5%, was much narrower than what Democrats had garnered in previous elections. Likewise, while Trump and Braun won Hamilton County, neither got more than 52% of the vote.
“There’s some interesting and odd things happening that are defying what politics have been … for a long time,” Kinsella said. He pointed out even when he was starting in politics in 2004, people fell into either the Republican or Democratic camp, so the outcome of the election was determined by which camp turned out the most members, but now voters are not so easily categorized.
“I think Hamilton County and Lake County provide in Indiana some of those clues that we just kind of have to sift through,” Kinsella continued. “It’s going to be worth a lot of time digging into that and seeing (what has happened) because … the electorate that once was is changing.”
Undecided voters fuel red wave
Incumbent Todd Rokita handily won a second term as Indiana attorney general even though he was publicly reprimanded for misconduct by the Indiana Supreme Court in November 2023 and is under at least two more investigations by the Supreme Court’s disciplinary commission for allegedly violating the Indiana rules of the legal profession.
Rokita received 58.7% of the vote while his opponent, Democrat Destiny Wells, picked up 41.3%.
U.S. Rep. Jim Banks kept the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Braun in Republican hands. Banks matched Rokita’s 58.7% of the vote despite facing two opponents, Democrat Valerie McCray who collected 38.7%, and Libertarian Andrew Horning who got 2.6%.
Republicans also held onto their seven congressional seats and came within 27,500 votes of flipping the seat currently held by Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan.
In the Indiana General Assembly, the GOP kept its grip on power and fended off an effort by Democrats to capture four additional seats and break the supermajority. Even though the retirements of long-time Republican Reps. Jerry Torr and Donna Schaibley created an opening for Democrats to pick up the suburban seats, the districts remained red.
Kinsella said Republicans in Indiana were helped by Trump’s overwhelming victory in the presidential election. The former president’s decisive win and accompanying red wave were surprising, but a trend appears to be emerging that indicates many of the undecided voters ultimately made the same choice.
“Everybody kind of moved in the Republican direction all at once,” Kinsella said.
On Tuesday afternoon in downtown Scottsburg, Brad Hyde was among the voters who were still undecided. He said he was planning to go home to clear his head before casting his ballot and then vote for “whoever I believe is telling me the truth.”
However, inflation and the high cost of his health insurance were on the top of his mind as he talked about the election. Already having to scrimp to cover the $190 bite his health insurance takes from his paycheck every two weeks, Hyde is worried about becoming like his father, who has little money left over each month after paying for medical care and prescription drugs.
Hyde is also frustrated by the money in politics and by elected officials who he says do not understand their constituents’ struggles.
“They have to do something to help with working class,” Hyde said.
Anger over abortion law dissipates
Addressing his supporters Tuesday evening, Braun was confident his administration would be successful.
“When I put my mind to it, I will do it in an understated way, over perform and produce results,” Braun said as reported by TheStatehouseFile.com. “Imagine what you can do when you set an agenda and get along with fellow legislators who believe in faith, family and community.”
Initially, the McCormick campaign said the governor’s race had been called too quickly, pointing out Braun had been declared the winner before a single vote in Marion County, a Democratic stronghold, had been counted. However, as more voters were counted, McCormick could not overcome Braun’s lead, and she issued a statement conceding the race at 10:18 p.m.
“While tonight’s outcome is disappointing, I know we waged a campaign based on hope and optimism, not one of fear and chaos. I’m so incredibly thankful to the millions of Hoosiers who voted and made their voices heard,” McCormick said in a statement.
Indiana Right to Life also released a statement on Tuesday, calling Braun’s victory a “defining moment of strength for the pro-life support in Indiana.”
“We are proud of the pro-life voters who turned out in force today, and we look forward to working with governor-elect Braun to make Indiana a model state in supporting pregnant mothers and protecting unborn babies,” Indiana Right to Life said in his statement.
McCormick had tapped into the anger over Indiana’s near-total abortion ban by making the restoration of reproductive rights are central part of her campaign. On the campaign trail, she often emphasized her bona fides on the issues, telling voters she was the only gubernatorial candidate who had been pregnant, given birth and understood the complexities associated with pregnancy.
Voter outrage had even appeared to boil over into the Indiana Supreme Court’s retention vote. A grassroots effort pushing for voters to oust Chief Justice Loretta Rush and Associate Justices Mark Massa and Derek Molter because they had all upheld Indiana’s restrictive abortion law, had created enough of a stir that members of the legal community formed a political action committee to mount a campaign for retention.
Not only did McCormick fall short but the three justices were each retained by a comfortable margin of roughly 70%.
Kinsella said Republicans in Indiana and elsewhere have not faced much political backlash over reinstating bans on abortions. The electorate in some states has approved ballot referendums and passed amendments to their constitutions enshrining abortion rights, but lawmakers and leaders favoring restrictions on, or even eliminating all, access to reproductive healthcare have not faced any significant punishment.
However, at some point, Kinsella noted, Republicans could be penalized by the voters. Elected officials and political parties can get overconfident, he said, and then they overstep. Even though the GOP won big on Tuesday, they will be back on the ballot in 2026.
“Voters are fickle,” Kinsella said, adding if politicians do not produce, they can lose the next election. “There’s an ebb and flow of politics, so at the end of the day, this is the way things are right now, but things change. Indiana used to be a much bluer state or a lot more competitive, and it wasn’t that long ago.”