INDIANAPOLIS — President Donald Trump promised he would do it. He delivered. Now, will it matter?
That’s the question looming over the state senate races in which Trump has thrown his support behind primary challengers now running against those who voted against his redistricting plan.
During his months-long pressure campaign to redraw Indiana’s congressional map to further favor Republicans, the president threatened political retribution in the primaries for any GOP legislator who stepped out of line.
In the end, 21 Republican senators ignored those threats and joined Democrats to derail the effort.
Ten of those seats are up for election in this year’s midterms, with incumbent senators who voted against redistricting running in eight of those districts. Two senators have announced they will not seek re-election. The filing deadline to run for office ended at noon Friday.
The president has so far issued endorsements on his Truth Social platform for five state senate challengers. Those candidates range from virtually unknown city and county elected officials to sitting state legislators.
In the endorsement posts, Trump also blasted each state senator who voted to foil his gerrymandering plan as “pathetic” RINOs (Republican in Name Only) and “America last” politicians.
One of those is Spencer Deery, a one-term Republican senator from West Lafayette who, due to his opposition to redistricting, was the victim of a swatting attempt in which someone falsely reported to police a domestic abuse incident at his home.
Despite what the president claims, Deery said in an email that he has “one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate and a proven record of passing meaningful legislation that advances the conservative movement.”
Now, Deery is facing off against Paula Copenhaver, a top aide to Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith and the Fountain County Republican chair. Trump backed Copenhaver in late January, calling her a “MAGA Warrior.” She responded in a Facebook post that she was “humbled and honored to earn the endorsement.”
But will it be enough to unseat Deery, a well-connected Republican who once worked at Purdue University for former college president and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels?
“I guess we’re about to find out how much a Trump tweet is worth,” said Michael O’Brien, a long-time Republican strategist and Daniels’ former chief of staff.
WHAT’S IN A NAME?
It’s unprecedented for a president to issue endorsements in down-ballot state primary races, noted Chad Kinsella, a political scientist and director of Ball State University’s Bowen Center for Public Affairs.
But that high-profile support won’t do much good if no one has heard of the candidate, he argued. Those primary contenders will face a steep climb to gain enough name recognition with voters, who usually cast ballots for people with whom they’re familiar, Kinsella said.
“It’s going to take a lot of pounding the pavement and knocking on doors and a lot of money spent on advertising,” Kinsella said. “It’s really hard to get rid of an incumbent … even with President Trump’s endorsement.”
That’s the challenge facing candidates like Blake Fiechter, a Bluffton city councilman facing off against incumbent Travis Holdman (Markle), an 18-year state senate veteran. Fiechter received Trump’s endorsement before he even decided to run for the office.
Others like Tracey Powell, a Tipton County commissioner, are challenging deep-rooted candidates like Jim Buck (Kokomo), who has served in the state legislature since 1994.
Rep. Michelle Davis (Whiteland) marks the one candidate challenging a sitting senator who enters the race with real name recognition. Davis has served in the Indiana House since 2020 and is taking on Sen. Greg Walker (Columbus), who has held his seat for two decades.
Davis leaned into her endorsement for Trump and criticized Walker for voting with Democrats.
“For too long, conservatives have watched ‘Republicans’ in Indianapolis cave at the moment of truth, and President Trump made clear that’s not acceptable,” she wrote in an email to CNHI.
For some die-hard Trump supporters, the president’s social-media endorsements will be enough to cast a ballot against an incumbent.
But for most primary voters, a candidate’s name and voting record will still take precedence, explained Elizabeth Bennion, a political scientist and director at the American Democracy Project at Indiana University South Bend.
“I just think that endorsements are loud, but governing records and regional coalitions are durable and important,” she said.
That’s especially true considering senators who voted against redistricting said they did so explicitly because their constituents told them they didn’t want it, noted O’Brien, the political strategist. Those voters are sure to cast a ballot in favor of the sitting senator, he said.
“If the election goes the same way that constituents were asking them to vote, then they’re fine,” O’Brien said. “But their constituents are gonna have to show up.”
COULD IT BACKFIRE?
Trump’s endorsements of little-known candidates could also end up backfiring on Republicans in the general election, argued Bennion. Democrats could have a leg up in more competitive state senate districts in which an obscure, Trumpbacked Republican is on the ballot, she explained.
“There aren’t a lot of very competitive districts in the state of Indiana, but you still wouldn’t want to increase the opportunity for a Democrat to win the seat and have less legislative support overall for the GOP down the road,” she said.
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