Indiana State University is projecting an enrollment decline of 543 students, or about 4 percent, for the fall 2019-20 academic year, and an enrollment committee is working on ways to reverse that decline, the university says.
“That’s a frustrating number,” Provost Mike Licari said during a meeting of the ISU board of trustees finance committee Friday.
It would be the second year enrollment has declined at ISU, and it will also mean some internal budget cuts, or re-allocation. Last fall, headcount enrollment was 13,045, or a 5.3 percent decrease from fall 2017 headcount of 13,771.
In preliminary planning for the 2019-20 budget, the university says its initial reallocation target for the general fund is $5.5 million, or 2.8 percent of a $195 million general fund budget.
“We’re clearly in a period of enrollment transition,” says Diann McKee, ISU senior vice president for finance and administration.
A university budget committee is meeting to determine what those reductions might be, but “a lot of it depends on where we end up with state funding,” after the General Assembly approves a budget in late April, McKee said.
While the decline has affected tuition revenue, ISU expects to see an increase in its state appropriation as a result of meeting state performance targets that focus on graduation rates. That increase will help offset some of the revenue losses.
McKee said it’s too early to say what kind of budget reductions might be necessary. “We’re still working through the process,” she said.
Fewer students might call for a reduction in adjunct faculty.
Licari said, “It’s certainly not anything to panic about. It’s not a crisis. You do need to make some budget adjustments ... We’re reviewing those figures and making decisions throughout the rest of this semester.”
A strategic enrollment management council has been meeting since September to look at ways to reverse the enrollment decline and stabilize revenues. Officials made presentations throughout campus, attended by 600 people, and a survey is underway to gather feedback.
“We need to have a new strategy to grow,” Licari said.
Based on a Feb. 6 forecast, the decline in new students is projected at 216, while the decline in continuing students is 327. “We need to rebound on freshmen,” Licari said.
Some factors influencing enrollment include competition for Indiana high school graduates, with the number of graduates expected to decline over the next decade.
Also, ISU has been successfully recruiting Illinois students because of budget problems affecting higher education; those problems are being resolved in Illinois and could point to fewer students from across the state line.
Going forward, ISU plans to focus on three key areas for growth: online, transfer and graduate students. In addition, improving retention and graduation rates will also improve enrollment numbers, Licari said.
Growth in online students has been strong the past several years, and “we need to make sure that continues,” Licari said.
The university also wants to be more intentional in recruiting new students and is using analytics to look at those students who have been successful and factors that have contributed to their success.
“Our goal is to bring in students who we know are likely to be successful,” Licari said.
The university hopes to rebuild the freshmen class to past levels. “That’s the challenge. You do it through better metrics, better analytics, so we’ll know who we can recruit and who will be successful,” he asid.
The strategic enrollment management committee is also working on short-term initiatives to improve fall 2019 enrollment numbers.
ISU previously had a standalone enrollment management division, but under President Deborah Curtis, a reorganization has taken place and it now falls under academic affairs.
ISU has hired its first vice provost for enrollment management, Jason Trainer, who begins March 1.
Offering her perspective Friday, Curtis said of the enrollment decline and accompanying need for budget adjustments, “It isn’t serious today because we’re managing it. We’ve had wonderful fiscal planning here to be able to handle this, but it isn’t sustainable,” she said.
The arrival of Trainer is “crucial” to begin work on growing enrollment and diversifying ISU’s student body to include more online, transfer and graduate students, she said. ISU will be looking to serve more of the 700,000 Hoosiers who have some college but no degree.
But other colleges will be seeking to serve those students as well. “That’s where the need is,” she said.
As far as the $5.5 million anticipated budget adjustment, Curtis noted that ISU maintains a budget reserve that also helps lessen the impact of enrollment declines. “But we can’t keep doing that,” she said.
On a more positive note, ISU anticipates a significant increase in state funding for the next biennium.
The budget recommendation from the Indiana Commission for Higher Education has ISU gaining $4.1 million in 2020, while the House Ways and Means budget proposal calls for $3.1 million. The CHE increase is based on 2.5 percent in new money for higher education, and the House budget is based on 1 percent in new money.
During the finance committee meeting, Trustee Jeff Taylor said ISU’s financial picture remains strong and “we are in an enviable position” because of good financial management. Going forward, he urged decision-making that will “protect our enviable position.”