INDIANAPOLIS – Gov. Mike Pence started the year of 2016 as politically vulnerable, with sinking approval ratings and a looming rematch against a well-funded opponent who almost beat him four years ago.
He ended the year as vice president-elect, having helped Donald Trump surprisingly claim the presidency and power through a 20-point victory in Indiana, a margin far higher than any polls predicted.
“That’s a huge story,” says Indiana University political analyst Paul Helmke.
Perhaps the hugest of the year, as far as Indiana politics goes. Fitting the category of nobody-saw-it-coming, Pence's political fortunes top the list of political stories of 2016.
It may best be summed up in a headline offered by political scientist Andy Downs of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics: “Mike Pence snatches a big victory from the jaws of defeat.”
But it wasn’t the only “oh wow” story of the year. Also on the list, in debatable order:
The collapse of Evan Bayh
Or, as Downs describes the defeat of the former two-term governor and two-term senator, “the 800-pound gorilla loses.”
Bayh unexpectedly parachuted into the U.S. Senate race in July, pushing out the less-popular Democratic primary winner Baron Hill. He came to the race with a $10 million campaign war chest and coveted credentials. The son of a longtime popular senator, Birch Bayh, he’d never lost a race in 30 years in politics.
It was no wonder why polls showed the younger Bayh leading by 21 points at the outset against a much less-funded, less-known three-term congressman, Todd Young.
Young handily won after a bruising campaign that pounded Bayh as a fortune-seeking Washington, D.C., insider who abandoned his Hoosier roots.
The Bayh story wasn’t just an Indiana one, notes newly retired Joe Losco, who headed the Bowen Center for Public Affairs at Ball State University.
Pushed into the race by national Democrats who saw him as a shoe-in, Bayh's assumed victory was seen as key to securing a Democratic majority in the Senate to complement President Hillary Clinton's Democratic administration.
“As a result, his campaign was closely watched,” said Losco. And it was watched as both he and Clinton flamed out in defeat.
Helmke calls it the “end of the Bayh magic.”
The Trump effect
The Republican was expected to win Indiana. After all, Trump's resounding win in the May primary here put an end to the campaign of the last GOP challenger standing, Sen. Ted Cruz.
But it was unclear what role Trump would play in down-ballot contests until the final days, when a Howey Politics Indiana poll showed his widening, double-digit lead over Clinton.
As it turned out, it was a tsunami.
Trump helped put Republican Eric Holcomb into the governor’s seat over the odds-on favorite, Democrat John Gregg. He helped knock out state schools chief Glenda Ritz – the only Democrat state officeholder, and keep in place Republican super-majorities in the General Assembly.
“The massive win forced Republicans with reservations about Trump to fall in line in the blink of an eye,” said Losco. “And it left Democrats scrambling to rebuild.”
The Indiana 'bathroom' bill
When a lawmaker proposed making it a crime for transgender people to use a public bathroom, it flung Indiana back into a national spotlight it was trying to escape.
A year earlier, Pence and GOP lawmakers had a pushed for a “religious freedom” bill as a counterweight to the coming legalization of same-sex marriage because it would have allowed businesses to deny goods and services to same-sex couples, citing religious beliefs.
A national backlash erupted, with threats from organizations worldwide to boycott the state. Pence’s awkward defense of the law accelerated his declining approval ratings, even as he signed an amendment to the law barring discriminatory behavior. Since then the law has been used a defense by an accused child abuser, who claimed biblical reasons for allegedly beating her child.
Lawmakers ventured down the perilous road again this year, with debate over the bathroom bill and related legislation to extend civil rights to include sexual orientation and gender identity.
But they gave up amid failure to find compromise. That and a gruesome fight over a restrictive abortion bill – which led to a protest movement that found women calling the governor’s office to report on the status of their periods — may have proved too much for many.
Republicans leaders, including Gov.-elect Holcomb, have vowed to keep their focus in the coming year on economic and infrastructure issues, sidestepping divisive social issues.
Calls from commuters complaining about potholes or looking for road improvements, by comparison, will be far easier to take.