Campaign pledges by now president-elect Donald Trump to "restore" fair trade, end Obamacare, promote coal use and restore infrastructure while cutting taxes all could have profound effects on Northwest Indiana's economy if implemented.
Here is what some of those involved with critical pieces of the Region's economy think might happen in their sectors with a Trump presidency, pending any solid plans that may be developed by a Trump administration along with Congress' Republican leadership in coming months.
U.S. Steel Corp.'s stock price has soared from $20.50 a share Tuesday to $24.66 at the end of trading Thursday, while ArcelorMittal stock rose from $6.30 a share to $7.10 a share over the same period.
Investors are bullish because Trump has talked about bringing steel jobs back to America, such as by imposing tariffs of 35 percent to 45 percent on Chinese imports, analyst Charles Bradford of New York City-based Bradford Research Inc.
"This should be very positive for steel," he said. "It could be very positive for Northern Indiana. The question is whether he can get it done."
Trump has talked about big infrastructure investments, which would greatly benefit the steel industry since construction accounts for 40 percent of the construction market. But the big integrated mills on Lake Michigan no longer make beams or other construction products, so it would largely benefit mini-mills, Bradford said.
And the United States already has multiple tariffs against Chinese steel, which has only accounted for 3 percent of the overall U.S. market through the end of September.
"We've already mostly gotten Chinese sheet products out of the market," he said. "Three percent is not terribly meaningful."
Trump may lift environmental regulations that could slow down the rush to lighten vehicles, but automakers will likely want to make them more fuel-efficient even without government mandates because better mileage sells, Bradford said. So the trend to replace conventional steel with advanced high-strength steel may continue.
"More efficient means less steel," he said.
One of the biggest benefits would be a focus on jobs and economic growth, Bradford said. Interest rates would rise, which would bolster pensions and greatly improve steelmaker's bottom lines.
Steelmakers also possibly escaped a blow because Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote but lost the electoral college, has proposed shutting down coal, Bradford said. Coking coal is a vital ingredient in steelmaking.
Such a ban was likely focused on thermal coal and may have excluded metallurgical coal, but it would have potentially dragged the metallurgical coal market down too.
"It would have taken down the unionized steel industry," he said. "It wouldn't have affected the mini-mills but it would have gotten the unionized guy."
Trump has pledged that on "Day 1" of his administration he will ask Congress to repeal Obamacare, the 2010 law that has expanded health coverage to an estimated 20 million Americans and driven the U.S. uninsured rate down to 8.6 percent, its lowest point on record.
But repealing Obamacare will be easier said than done, said David Orentlicher, a law professor and co-director of the Hall Center for Law and Health at Indiana University.
For one, Orentlicher said, certain provisions of the law are extremely popular with the public: the ban on denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions, allowing young adults to remain on their parents' health plans until the age of 26, the prohibition of annual and lifetime caps on health spending.
"It's very hard to take away people's benefits once they have them," Orentlicher said. "It's not just patients who are going to care, it's hospitals who are going to care, it's governors, physicians. If there are fewer people who can pay for health care, hospitals are going to have to cut their staffs. The political costs of repeal will probably be too high."
In the Region, Obamacare has also expanded the number of community health centers, places that have to serve patients regardless of their insurance status or ability to pay.
Beth Wrobel, CEO of HealthLinc, which has clinics in East Chicago, Knox, Michigan City, Mishawaka, South Bend and Valparaiso, believes community health centers have bipartisan support. She noted that much of HealthLinc's growth happened under the George W. Bush administration.
She is also encouraged by the fact that the vice president-elect is Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, who expanded Medicaid under Obamacare as part of the Healthy Indiana Plan, bringing coverage to tens of thousands of people in Northwest Indiana. Under the Affordable Care Act, the portion of HealthLinc's patient population that is uninsured has gone from from 40 percent to 14 percent.
And if Obamacare, which provides millions of dollars in additional funding for community health centers, went away?
"We'd find a way," Wrobel said. "We would have less revenue and so some of what we have added — the behavioral health, the dental health, the vision care — we would have to look for other funding mechanisms for. But I have confidence in the staff at HealthLinc that we'd figure out a way."
Power struggle over EPA regs
Donald Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and has pledged to scrap the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power plan to reduce carbon emissions. He has also pledged to rip up other EPA regulations and spur more production of coal.
A week before his election, NIPSCO announced a plan to shut down its Bailly Generating Station in 2018 and about 40 percent of Schahfer Generating Station's capacity in 2023. Both are coal-fired electric generating plants. That brought cheers from environmental groups, who want utilities to stop using coal and turn to cleaner fuels for powering generating plants such as natural gas and renewables like wind and solar.
In an e-mailed response to The Times on Thursday, NIPSCO said current environmental regulations are one factor in the planned power plant closures, but the plan is primarily driven by the low cost of natural gas, the age and condition of the plants, as well as maintenance capital costs required to continue running them.
That squares with what the Indiana manager for the Sierra Club's Clean Coal campaign said she heard from NIPSCO in stakeholder meetings when the closure plan was developed as part of the utility's overall long-range plan. That plan was announced on Nov. 1.
Jodi Perras also pointed out wind and solar becoming more competitive on price will continue to accelerate the overall trend away from coal.
“I don't see anything in their announcements, (NIPSCO's) that would significantly change with a Trump presidency,” she said.
On the same day as announcing its plan for plant closures, NIPSCO also filed a petition asking regulators for permission to undertake $399 million in environmental upgrades at power plants to prevent pollution from coal ash.
NIPSCO confirmed Thursday it plans to follow through on its request for projects to prevent coal ash pollution, as they are associated with regulations already in place and compliance deadlines are approaching.
'Full speed ahead' for South Shore
Officials involved in the South Shore Line's two major infrastructure initiatives are optimistic the projects will continue moving forward in the new administration.
Federal spending on transportation received a boost last year with passage of the Fixing America's Surface Transportation, or FAST Act, the first federal long-term transportation funding bill in more than a decade. The act authorized $305 billion in spending over the five fiscal years 2016 through 2020.
The South Shore Line's ambitious West Lake Corridor and Double Track NWI projects depend on some of that money to fund half their construction costs, which together are approaching an estimated $900 million.
South Shore President Michael Noland said "we don't see anything changing" in regard to the five-year FAST Act. And he said members of Congress representing northern Indiana are on board with the rail projects.
"From the Indiana delegation standpoint, nationally, that's good news," he said.
U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky has worked at the local and federal levels to secure funding.
"While it is unknown what actions will be taken in the 115th Congress," Visclosky said in a post-election statement to The Times, "I believe the expansion and improvement of South Shore commuter services stand on their own merits."
The South Shore funding would come from grant programs that have about $2.3 billion available annually. The grants would be included directly in the 2019 federal budget, if the projects proceed as planned and receive Federal Transit Administration approval.
While the Republican Party has generally expressed skepticism about mass transit, including in their platform published at this year's convention, the FAST Act earned large majorities in both houses of Congress, and Trump has expressed interest in significant infrastructure investment.
"That's got to be good news for us," said Noland, who said "it's full speed ahead" in regard to project planning.
Visclosky also noted a key figure in the new administration has already taken action in support of South Shore growth.
Vice President-elect Mike Pence, as Indiana governor, "signed into law Indiana’s long-term commitment to fund the expansion of the South Shore," Visclosky said. "Governor Pence also approved the reauthorization of the Regional Development Authority, which is the linchpin of transformational investments in Northwest Indiana."