By ROGER MOON, Times-Mail
BEDFORD - Newly released population figures show declines for Bedford as well as Mitchell and Oolitic, but the downward shift doesn't necessarily spell trouble. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates for Lawrence County, overall, shows population growth.
Scott Burgins is among the many community development professionals in Indiana who pay attention to population trends. He is senior project manager with the Bloomington-based Strategic Development Group, which has been involved with economic and community development projects in communities throughout southern Indiana.
"One of the things we look for is positive population growth," Burgins said, "because it's a sign of being a desirable place to live."
The U.S. Census Bureau released city, town and township population estimates for July 1, 2004. The numbers show population declines in all three of Lawrence County's incorporated communities. Oolitic's number slipped to 1,128 since the decennial census of 2000, reflecting a drop of 1.83 percent. Bedford's number fell to 13,570, a decline of 1.29 percent, and Mitchell's population estimate is 4,648, a 1.07 percent decline.
But the new figure that local leaders were pleased to hear reveals Lawrence County's population estimate is 46,398, which is up .98 percent from the official 2000 census count.
Sam Allison, economic development director for the Lawrence County Economic Growth Council, said, "Although we should be concerned that population is down in the cities, it is very encouraging to see population up for the county as a whole."
Adele Bowden-Purlee suggested many of those who are leaving the incorporated communities may be moving to rural parts of the county, which means they still contribute to the overall benefits a higher population brings to the county.
Burgins talked about the benefits of an increasing population. "That increases the tax base. You have a bigger work force to draw from," he said.
"But," he said of the slight downward shifts for Lawrence County's incorporated communities, "This kind of number over such a short period of time is not a reason to panic. ... It bears watching."
Any grant applications filed by municipalities must show the decennial population figures, but the periodic estimates can be factored in for grant purposes.
Burgins said, "If you're writing a grant, you often try to show a need, and a loss of population might be a positive thing to show. That is not true if you're trying to recruit a company or anything like that."
Population declines, Burgins said, bring questions about what segments of the population are affected. He said it's accompanied by the need to determine, for instance, whether those leaving the county are more likely to be young people or retirees.
"That would be the next important thing we need to know," Burgins said, if the trend for leaving incorporated communities were to continue.
To Lawrence County's south, Orange County has experienced an estimated 2.04 increase since 2000, taking its population to 19,718. As for the communities, Paoli's population figure is up by 2.24 percent to 3,933 and Orleans experienced a 1.14 percent jump to 2,300. A population dip of .77 was recorded for French Lick, with a current number of 1,924. West Baden Springs, with a current figure of 613, reflects a .81 percent drop.
In Martin County, the new estimate is 10,467, reflecting an increase of 1.07 since 2000. Loogootee's population is 2,712, which is down 0.80 percent. The figure for Shoals is 823, down 1.98 percent from 2000.
Population declines in local cities and towns don't dampen Allison's optimism about Lawrence County's economic future.
He said, "Within the last 12 months, there have been some significant expansions with a number of existing employers in the county. Some of those employers are located within city limits. Some of them are out in the county, but I think, on the whole, we are seeing some good news."
He added, "Nationwide, the manufacturing sector gained about 75,000 jobs in 2004 and from all the data I've collected locally, over the past 12 months, we've had some gains as well.