Lawrence and other surrounding Indiana counties are experiencing a decline in population.
But what’s the cause?
“It’s driven by the fact that there is a natural decrease,” said Matt Kinghorn, senior demographic analyst at the Indiana Business Research Center. “That means there are more deaths each year than there are births.”
Kinghorn led a study that analyzed population trends and offered predictions for the future, going as far as 2050. The study predicts that Lawrence County’s population will decline from 45,485 residents in 2015 to 43,598 in 2035, then to 40,955 in 2050. Totals for Orange, Washington and Martin counties are also expected to drop.
For Lawrence County, Kinghorn said the number of people leaving the county and those moving in are about even. But when young adults move, he said, the average age of people in the county can increase more rapidly. He said many young folks are moving to metropolitan areas. The study showed growth for counties including Marion, which boasts Indianapolis.
“These trends can turn around, though,” Kinghorn said.
Lawrence County’s population is also expected to age, with the average person being 42.8 years-old in 2015. The study predicts the number will grow to 44.6 by 2050.
For example, Kinghorn also led a study on population shifts in 2012. But with the 2018 study, it’s easier to see the effects of the recession that occurred about a decade ago.
“The biggest difference in doing them now and 2011-2012 is really seeing how much of an impact the Great Recession has had on population trends. After 2009, you saw migration slow down quite a bit and saw birth rates fall.”
Indiana as a whole, Kinghorn said, is doing well. “This whole study is really just looking at what’s been going on the last 15 years and projecting that forward.”
The state’s population is predicted to grow by roughly 660,000 residents between 2015 and 2050, mostly in urban counties such as Marion. Only 33 counties are expected to have an increase.