Back in April, the Indianapolis Business Journal asked the then five Republican candidates for Governor, “What would you do to boost the economy of rural Indiana?"
They gave us all the answers: education, business investment, health care, child care, Main Streets, agricultural research, unleash entrepreneurship, and, my favorite, “maximize the expertise at Purdue.”
What do we see when we believe a place needs a “boost?” Is it a loss of population or just a slower rate of growth than other places? Is population the only factor? And given the answers above from the candidates, should our actions be different for urban vs. rural areas?
Where is the need? Population offers an easy answer. In 2020, at the time of the last census, 44 Hoosier counties had fewer people than their peak populations. Peaks were determined from a table of 7 Census years (1900, 1920, 1940, on to 2020).
Lake County was the biggest numeric loser, down by 24,300 from its 1980 level of 523,000 persons. But that was less than a 5% decline in 40 years, an average annual loss of 607 residents (0.12%). Is that a crisis?
Compare that to the biggest percent decline of 44% (12,200 persons) in Vermillion County. Here the population was 27,600 in 1920, over a hundred years ago. The annual loss was 122 persons. Is Vermillion in crisis or has it adjusted to its reality?
To answer that question, dig down to the township level. In Lake County, only 3 of 11 townships lost population. Calumet Twp dropped 118,900 (56%) of it residents, North Twp lost 47,400 residents (23%), and Hobart Twp. was down 1,900 (4%). The other 8 townships gained 209,400.
In Vermillion County, each of the five townships lost population from their respective peaks. Clinton and Vermillion Twps each lost more than half of their peak populations.
Lake County is an example of population shifts resulting from household income growth combined with racial/ethnic bias. Vermillion County is likely the poster child for the loss of an industrial base.
What should we do about the 642 Indiana townships (64% of our 1,008 townships) that together were 791,400 below their previous population peaks? Let it be and just recite the mantra of remedies offered by the GOP hopefuls?
What does each county or township have or lack to support economic advances for its citizens? Possibly improved transit and/or roads to jobs elsewhere might be the best route at this time. But any road improvement will be fought by property owners as a danger to children waiting for school buses and old folks picking up the mail.
In fact, anything that facilitates change will bring immediate opposition by those who decry decay yet oppose necessary progressive steps. Rural or urban restoration is an admirable goal, but will be a political nightmare when actually attempted.