Although there’s room for improvement, Johnson County’s economic outlook is looking positive with population and workforce growth.
Johnson County is “the place to be” when it comes to economic growth and the future, said Phil Powell, executive director of the Indiana Business Research Center and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy at Kelley School of Business at Indiana University Bloomington.
At Aspire Johnson County’s annual economic outlook event Thursday at Mallow Run Winery in Bargersville, Powell gave information on what community members should know about the county, state and national economies in 2025. He spoke alongside Russell Rhoads, clinical associate professor of financial management at Kelley School of Business at Indiana University Indianapolis, and Brian Vander Schee, clinical associate professor of marketing at Kelley School of Business at Indiana University Bloomington.
According to Powell, Johnson County has been experiencing growth in its economy, population and number of workers. However, the county is still paying low wages to workers and has slightly higher house prices.
The Johnson County economy is $7.5 billion and grew 10.4% between 2020 and 2022 — slightly faster growth than the rest of the Indianapolis metro area, Powell said. He expects the county economy to grow about 3.5% in the next year, which would put it ahead of the state and national economies.
Growth can be seen in various sectors as the county becomes more technological and focused on high-end services, he said. The fastest growing sector is financing and insurance, with the second being information technology and durable goods manufacturing as a result of the “manufacturing Renaissance” happening in the county which Indiana “disproportionately” benefits from. There’s also growth in arts, entertainment and recreation and professional scientific and technical services.
Shrinkage has hit areas like retail and wholesale trade and non-durable goods. There has also only been slight growth in agriculture.
“Johnson County is becoming better diversified, and Johnson County is becoming more globally competitive. We’re seeing growth in the right sectors,” Powell said.
Johnson County is also one of the fastest-growing counties in the state. As of last year, there were 168,000 people in the county and it’s expected to grow to 179,000 by 2030, which is an annual population growth rate of about 1% each year.
“That puts you way at the top in terms of the state. Most of our counties are staring at shrinkage,” Powell said.
The county is on track when it comes to decreasing unemployment. County unemployment is at about 3.5% and Powell expects it to come down to 3% by the end of the year. This means the county still has to compete for talent and his advice for CEOs is to make your place of employment “the best place to work on planet Earth,” he said.
But Powell said the good news is that Johnson County is attracting workers and saw 3.2% growth in the labor force in one year, which is only slightly lower than the metropolitan area in Indianapolis at 3.4%. He said the rest of the state is “struggling just to see a growth of half a percentage point.”
“So consider yourself lucky,” Powell said. “Local leaders, whatever you’re doing, keep doing it. Whatever you’re doing to make Johnson County an attractive place, keep doing it. Keep making those bold investments to put Johnson County on the map.”
However, wages are still an issue in Johnson County. Powell said the average as of September was $967 a week, which is 83% of the state’s average and only two-thirds of the national average. Although there are many jobs in the county, Powell said many of them are low-paying jobs.
“The good news is that we’re seeing growth in the industries that will attract higher-paying jobs …” he said. “Those are naturally going to attract higher paying jobs. So you’re moving in the right direction.”
With housing, Johnson County ranks a little bit more expensive than Indianapolis and the rest of the state. The county’s median housing price is $350,000 while metropolitan Indianapolis’ is $325,000 and the state’s at $250,000. The county is still under the national average at $425,000.
Residential real estate is strong but there will be periods where mortgage rates fall and slightly rise again, Powell said.
“It’s going to be two steps forward, one step back in the housing market as we go through 2025,” he said.
Although the county doesn’t have a high average wage for workers, the county is above average for household income. The median household income in the county is $83,036. That means there are a lot of higher-paid people working elsewhere while living in Johnson County.
Regarding brain-brain, Powell said the trends are changing where college graduates want to live and work in the same community.
“This whole concept of living in the suburbs and driving downtown is becoming sort of old-fashioned,” he said.
Powell encouraged the audience to consider what they want the county’s workforce to look like because more graduates want to live and work in the same place without commutes like their parents had.
“Johnson County has a perfect opportunity to make that happen but right now there’s a huge difference between what people that live here, what their quality of life is and what people are getting paid,” Powell said. “And again, not a bad thing, but it’s a difference or contrast that you need to be cognizant of as you think about where Johnson County heads in the future.”