Indiana’s population will grow by nearly 383,000 residents between 2020 and 2060—a 5.6% increase over this 40-year stretch—according to new population projections released by the Indiana Business Research Center. Growth over this period will be heavily front-loaded, with 60% of these gains taking place by 2030. All told, the state’s population total will climb from 6.79 million residents in 2020 to 7.17 million in 2060.
These latest numbers—which are the IBRC’s first set of projections based on the Census 2020 population count—show that Indiana will see significantly slower growth over the next four decades (see Figure 1).
To underscore how swift and severe this change will be: Indiana’s total population growth over the next 40 years is projected to be lower than the state’s growth between 2000 and 2010.
Reasons for slowing growth
Population change is caused by two demographic forces: migration and natural increase (or the difference between the number of births and deaths). While migration is an important component of change, natural increase has long been the dominant source of population growth in Indiana (see Figure 2). Even last decade—when net migration was relatively strong and natural increase had fallen to its lowest level in the last 80 years—natural increase accounted for 70% of the state’s growth. Looking ahead, however, natural increase will quickly shift from Indiana’s primary driver of growth to a drag on it.
To some degree, this trend was always inevitable. With the aging of the Baby Boom generation—a cohort that is between the ages of 60 and 78 in 2024—Indiana was sure to see a substantial decline in the natural increase over the next few decades, and with it, a slowdown in population growth. Over the last two decades, however, dramatic changes to the state’s fertility and mortality trends are exacerbating this long-expected slowdown.
Looking first at fertility, the annual number of births in Indiana has been on a steep and steady decline since the Great Recession hit in 2008 (see Figure 3). The preliminary total of 79,000 births in 2023 represents a 12% decline compared to 2007 and ranks as the state’s third-lowest annual tally since 1946 (only 1987 and 2020 were lower). Meanwhile, the 2023 fertility rate of 58.9 is Indiana’s lowest mark on record and almost certainly the lowest in the state’s history.
To give a sense of how this trend impacts the size and structure of the state’s population: Indiana would have had roughly 148,000 more births between 2008 and 2023 if the state’s average age-specific fertility rates from 2005 to 2007 had held steady over the past 16 years.
Shifting to mortality, Indiana’s life expectancy peaked in 2010 and—except for a modest post-pandemic rebound—has been in decline since. While a variety of factors contribute to Indiana’s poor health record, the primary reason for declining life expectancy is a steady rise in mortality rates among the state’s working-age population. 1
As Figure 4 shows, Indiana’s mortality rate for its population between the ages of 25 and 54 increased by 24% between 1998 and 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic and a further escalation in the drug overdose crisis combined to drive mortality rates for this group to much higher levels in 2020 and 2021. After recovering over the next two years, the mortality rate for Indiana’s working-age population in 2023 was still 6% higher than in 2019.
Taking these factors together—the long-term population dynamics driven by the aging of the Baby Boomers and the more recent shifts in fertility and mortality—our projections show that natural increase will decline sharply over the next 40 years and that the state will begin to see a natural decrease of the population (i.e., deaths outnumbering births) beginning in the 2040s (see Figure 5).
With natural increase expected to fade, migration will become Indiana’s sole source of growth. Fortunately, Indiana has proven to be an attractive destination for movers since the 1990s, and the state is currently experiencing a surge in migration, with an average annual net inflow of nearly 22,000 residents per year between 2020 and 2023.2 Given this track record, we project that Indiana will continue to see a higher level of net in-migration in the 2020s before this measure reverts toward its long-term trend in the following decades.
Metro areas will drive growth
A handful of metropolitan areas will be responsible for nearly all of Indiana’s population growth over the next three decades. In fact, the 11-county Indianapolis metro area will outgrow the state, adding nearly 405,000 residents between 2020 and 2050—a 19.3% increase. The Indy metro area’s share of Indiana’s total population will rise from 31% in 2020 to 35% in 2050 (Note: The IBRC’s county-level projections cover 2020 to 2050).
Hamilton County will continue to lead the state in growth, with an increase of more than 180,500 residents. Hamilton County will likely overtake Allen County and Lake County during this stretch and become the state’s second most populous county with a total of approximately 529,500 residents in 2050.
Several other communities in the Indy metro will also continue to see rapid growth. In fact, the state’s five fastest-growing counties over this projection period will be suburban counties in this region (see Figure 7). Boone, Hancock, Hendricks and Johnson counties will each see their populations grow by at least 25% by 2050. Outside of central Indiana, the other communities that are projected to grow by at least 10% over the next three decades are Clark, Warrick, Allen and Bartholomew counties.
Looking at Indiana’s largest communities, Marion County will add nearly 35,000 residents by 2050 to reach a total population of 1.01 million people—a 4% increase. Allen County will continue to see strong growth, climbing by 14% over the next 30 years and finishing with a population of nearly 441,000 residents. Lake and St. Joseph counties will see modest gains through 2035 before beginning to see slight population declines, with both counties projected to reach 2050 with fewer residents than they have today.
All told, 67 of Indiana’s 92 counties are expected to see population losses over the next 30 years, including most of the state’s midsize and rural communities. As Figure 8 illustrates, Indiana’s rural counties as a group are projected to see a population decline of 10% over the next three decades.3 Similarly, the state’s midsize communities—or micropolitan areas (meaning counties with a city or town that has a population between 10,000 and 50,000 residents)—will have a 6% drop. Meanwhile, the 44 Indiana counties that are part of a metropolitan statistical area will combine for a 9% increase in population over this period.
Indiana’s aging population
The aging of the Baby Boom generation promises to transform the state. For instance, back in 2010 when the oldest boomers were 64 years old, only 13% of Hoosiers were in the 65+ age group. By 2035, when this entire cohort will be older than the traditional retirement age, seniors will account for 20% of Indiana’s population.
In terms of raw numbers, the size of Indiana’s 65+ age group is projected to grow by nearly 290,000 residents between 2020 and 2035—a 26% increase. The size of the senior population will continue to grow beyond this point and will surpass 1.5 million by 2060 (see Figure 9).
Meanwhile, the size of Indiana’s population under the age of 20 is set to fall by 4% over the next 30 years. Declines in this age group are projected to be particularly sharp in the state’s midsize and rural counties (see Figure 10). Fueled by the state’s metro areas, Indiana’s working-age population should see modest growth over the next three decades. Of course, this outcome is contingent on net migration to the state remaining strong. Expected declines in this age group for many of the state’s midsize and rural communities raise concerns about the future size of the labor force in these communities.
The easiest way to compare aging in counties or states is to look at the median age. In 2020, Indiana’s median age of 38.0 was younger than the U.S. mark of 38.5. The median age in Indiana is projected to creep up to 41.3 by 2050. While Indiana is a relatively young state, 61 of its counties had a median age of 40 or higher in 2020. By 2050, 70 Indiana counties will have a median age above 42 years old (see Figure 11).
About the projections
The IBRC’s projections are purely demographic, meaning that they rely exclusively on recent birth/death data and migration estimates. Therefore, these figures reflect what Indiana and its communities will look like if past trends continue. No assumptions have been made about future economic conditions or land use decisions. However, State policy will assuredly have an effect, as will businesses’ and residents’ decisions to migrate to Indiana, to stay or to go.
Also, some population dynamics can be difficult to project. Migration, in particular, is prone to sudden swings. Therefore, long-range projections can be subject to significant error, and it is often useful to pay greater attention to trends during the first 15 to 20 years of the projections period.
To access the entire population projections data set or to read a detailed methodology, visit the STATS Indiana Population Projections topic page.
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