Uncertainty surrounding swine herd losses from a deadly pig virus has sent lean hog futures to a record high.
Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, or PEDv, is nearly 100 percent fatal for infected piglets less than 2 weeks old. There is no vaccination or treatment for the disease, which has killed an estimated 4 million hogs since it was discovered last spring. It poses no threat to humans or food safety.
The disease may drive up the price of pork. Spring and summer futures prices have jumped $10 to $14 in the past two weeks, suggesting that lean hog prices could average about $112 per hundredweight for the March through August period.
This compares with an average of $88 per hundredweight for the same period last year. Within a few weeks, consumers could see those increased prices reflected in the grocery aisle, said Chris Hurt, an agricultural economist at Purdue University.
The virus infects a pig’s intestines, causing severe diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. According to the Indiana State Board of Animal Health, the disease has been reported in 43 counties. It has yet to hit Dubois County but has appeared in Daviess, Martin and Vanderburgh counties.
The fear is that if the disease continues to spread, processors will have a harder time buying pigs for slaughter. Some traders expect hog supplies could be down as much as 7 to 10 percent in the coming months.
Hurt said demand for pork tends to hold fairly steady, and consumers are slow to reduce their pork use even when supply is short.
Still, he said it’s possible the markets have overreacted. If the lean hog slaughter supplies drop 3 or 4 percent instead of the more dire predictions of 7 to 10 percent, futures prices could come down.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release an updated inventory report March 28. The report will provide information on the number of pigs that survived the winter.
PEDv spreads from farm to farm through fecal contamination in trucks and trailers. Brian Weisheit, who runs a hog farm north of Jasper, has taken precautions to protect his herd from the virus. He inspects all trucks and trailers that come through his farm to make sure they have been thoroughly cleaned and disinfected.
Still, he said no matter how careful he is, there’s a chance the disease could make its way to his farm. He likened it to the common cold.
“It’s just a matter of time,” Weisheit said.
The first confirmed case in the U.S. came last spring in Iowa. Since then the virus has spread to 26 states and four Canadian provinces.
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