INDIANAPOLIS — This is the week to expect major movement in the standoff that has shut down this year's session of the Indiana General Assembly.
No, the on-the-lam House Democrats have not said they will end their boycott and return from Illinois.
They could come back; after all, it is a "day-by-day" situation, according to their leader, Rep. Patrick Bauer of South Bend.
But they might not.
More certain, though, is that majority Republicans who have tired of their counterparts' antics will begin to work around the missing Democrats, instead of patiently tolerating a fourth straight week of absences.
They have ways of moving forward without Democrats, and they also have a couple of ways they might be able to entice Democrats to return.
Here's what would happen if Democrats do not come back:
Since the House can do no formal work without Democrats, this week leaders in both the House and the Senate, which is waiting for the House to deliver a budget bill, could begin scheduling informal hearings.
That would set them on course to ready an entire package of bills for final passage, if the House can ever get six more Democrats back to form the constitutionally required 67-member quorum.
How would that work? It's pretty easy, really. Under Indiana's Constitution, a bill has to pass both chambers with a majority vote before it can become law, and a quorum must be present to conduct that vote.
But the rest of the legislative process to which we are all accustomed — committee hearings and votes, the first, second and third reading steps, and so on — can actually be skipped. Those rules are set by the General Assembly, not the Constitution, so lawmakers have the power to waive them.
It's not ideal. But Senate leaders — especially Sen. Luke Kenley, the Noblesville Republican who is his chamber's principal budget architect — need to start their work, and House leaders such as Speaker Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, see this as a viable option, as well.
"We're getting close to the point where the session is not salvageable in its entirety," Bosma told me last week, explaining the significance of forging ahead somehow.
That strategy does not deal with the problem of Democrats' continued absence, but it does allow for some progress, and it shifts some pressure onto the missing Democrats whose presence would no longer be an urgent matter.
Not to mention, it would be hard to criticize Republicans for changing the rules, since Democrats are the ones refusing to play by the old ones.
But what if Democrats are willing to come back? There seem to be two scenarios that are most likely at this point:
The best chance of patching things back together involves continued talks between Bauer and Bosma.
The Republican speaker said he spoke several times late last week with his Democratic rival. If Democrats' demands are truly contained to three bills, as Bauer says, and the party really does desire to return in the near future, these two could get it done.
But if Bauer wants more than a very narrow set of concessions, he is going to have to call Senate Republicans — in particular, either Kenley or Senate President Pro Tem David Long, R-Fort Wayne.
I want to emphasize, again, that Bauer must call them, not the other way around. Kenley and Long absolutely cannot undercut Bosma and Gov. Mitch Daniels. Because of pressure within the Republican Party, wiring completely around House Republicans is just not an option.
But they do enjoy much better relationships with Bauer than Bosma or the governor have. If Bauer calls one of them, the Senate Republican would probably answer, and would probably agree to chat if Bauer returns to Indiana.
While Bosma cannot offer much compromise because appearing to buckle would infuriate the right, Senate Republicans are in a logical position to mediate some sort of end to this standoff.
All these strategies are tricky. But the only road map for an end to this situation involves hopping on Interstate 74 East and driving back from Urbana, Ill.