Purdue agricultural economist Chris Hurt is cautiously optimistic about Indiana’s prospects in the 2013 farm season.
“For Indiana, could this be lucky 13?” he asked.
Speaking to about 80 area farmers as part of a crop seminar at the Dubois County Fairgrounds on Wednesday, Hurt predicted prices for corn and soybeans to dip slightly while yields surge to pre-drought levels. These predictions are dependent upon the weather maintaining its current patterns across the United States.
The U.S. Drought Monitor report released this morning shows Indiana to be almost completely drought-free, listing the northern border as “abnormally dry.” By contrast, four of the six states that produce the most corn — Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota — are still facing extreme or exceptional droughts. Rounding out the six are Indiana and Illinois.
“The eastern corn belt, as you know, has already primarily emerged out of the drought,” Hurt said at the crop seminar. The eastern corn belt is favored to receive precipitation in the coming months, he said, while the western corn belt and the Great Plains remain vulnerable to dryness.
If this trend were to stay consistent throughout the 2013 season, Hurt said, Indiana farmers could see high prices and decent yields. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has forecast above-normal precipitation for Indiana from April through June, and above-normal temperatures for all but the northwestern United States.
Hurt predicted Indiana corn yields of 165 bushels per acre, compared to 100 bushels per acre in 2012 and 146 in 2011. Corn prices, which nearly tripled from 2005 to 2012, going from $2.80 per bushel in 2005 to $8.31 last year, will decline to $5.62 per bushel in 2013, he predicted.
Soybeans averaged 41 bushels per acre, at $14.91 per bushel in 2012, compared to 45 bushels per acre at $12.98 per bushel in 2011. As with corn, Hurt predicted that soybean yields will increase, to 49.5 bushels per acre, and that their price will drop, to $12.86 per bushel.
For all his predictions, Hurt added a caveat.
“Certainly, weather will determine whether we have decent, above- or below-average crops,” he said.
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