In a Washington Post op-ed in February 2023, Spencer Cox and Eric Holcomb — GOP governors of Utah and Indiana, respectively — endorsed the idea of giving states the power to issue their own immigration visas.
Such power would help fill 220,000 job openings in Indiana, Holcomb suggested.
Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office reports that a large proportion of recent and projected immigrants will be 25 to 54 years old; in their prime to work.
That proposition comes into play when Hoosiers are confronted with recent population projections by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business.
BY 2060, Indiana’s population growth will be about 5.6% or nearly 383,000 people. The state’s population is expected to climb from 6.79 million in 2020 to 7.17 million in 2060. About 60% of the gains will take place by 2030.
The state’s population will “slow significantly” over the next four decades, according to the IBRC. This implies a need for a paradigm shift in the way Hoosiers think about the economy.
Population growth will be slowed by the aging of Baby Boomers, a predicted decline in life expectancy (peaking at 77.5 in 2010) and, beginning in the 2040s, deaths outnumbering births.
Growth is expected to take place in the counties surrounding Marion County. The 11-county Indianapolis metro area will add nearly 405,000 residents from 2020 to 2050, a 19% increase.
But matched against declines in rural counties, as younger Hoosiers move to areas with more career choices, and decreases in the 25-34 age group, the net tally takes us to the 383,000 growth figure.
Maybe Hoosiers thought we’d always be able to fill job openings. Or that a 383,000 bump is just fine. Maybe we thought there would be a natural increase in births. Perhaps we put too much reliance on higher education as a means of filling workforce needs.
While projections of any sort are merely that, we should ponder newer approaches. Consider the following:
• Rural tourism to bolster jobs in outlying counties
• Making in vitro fertilization more affordable to prospective parents as one option for promoting human life
• Welcoming legal, working-age immigrants
• Building energy-efficient housing in rural areas
• Improving childcare options in outlying areas
• Increasing tax breaks for families with children
• Capping college tuition and even decreasing costs for each year in school.
Gov. Holcomb proclaimed in his recent state of the state speech, “Our population is growing faster than every state we border.” That is an in-the-moment sales job. Such a view doesn’t look forward to the year 2060.
Hoosiers can no longer rely on the norm when it comes to Indiana’s future. Tax breaks for new businesses can’t be our only answer for promoting local growth.
A state-coordinated task force — minus pork barrel politics, as long as we’re thinking of paradigm shifts — could survey the public and mandate a coherent policy.
Indiana can’t wait until 2060 to address the troubling projections that we have in 2024.
© 2024 Community Newspaper Holdings, Inc.