The state of Indiana once again missed its revenue target in November — the fourth month in a row where state tax collections came in less than the amount anticipated by Hoosier lawmakers.
Data released by the State Budget Agency show last month's General Fund receipts totaled $1.39 billion. That was, however, $6.3 million, or 0.5%, below the revenue forecast.
As a result, Indiana's General Fund currently is down $250 million, or 3.1%, compared to the forecast through the first five months of the state's 2025 budget year.
The deficit is even greater relative to the two-year spending plan Hoosier lawmakers enacted in 2023. Since July 1, Indiana has missed its budget plan revenue target by a cumulative $429.2 million, or 5.3%.
The State Budget Agency said in a statement accompanying the monthly revenue results that these kinds of fluctuations are expected based on economic dynamics, payment timing, federal policy actions, tax rates and other changes to law.
"These timing dynamics are expected to normalize over the coming months starting in December. Month-to-month changes are to be interpreted within the full fiscal year forecast. More than 60% of revenues are projected to come in between December and June," the budget agency said.
On the plus side, November was the first month of Indiana's 2025 budget year that General Fund revenue exceeded its revenue from the same month in the 2024 budget year. The annual growth was $17.4 million, or 1.3%.
Though total state revenue between July 1 and November 30 still is down $187.1 million, or 2.4%, on a year-over-year basis, data show.
The State Budget Committee is slated to convene Tuesday to receive an updated state revenue forecast for the remainder of the 2025 budget year and the state's next two-year budget period.
Depending on the outlook, Republican Gov.-elect Mike Braun may have to consider making interim spending reductions soon after taking office Jan. 13, even before he has a chance to implement his "entrepreneurial" plan for streamlining state government.
The forecast also will play a significant role in debates over state revenue and spending during the four-month session of the Republican-controlled Indiana General Assembly set to begin Jan. 8.
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