Labor leaders stung by setbacks during Republican rule of the Statehouse are engaged in a massive effort to mobilize their members and put a Democrat back in the governor’s office.
The effort — focused on individual, member-to-member contacts — comes after union leaders discovered that more than a quarter-million of members and their families failed to vote in the 2012 election that the labor-friendly John Gregg lost by only 75,000 votes.
“Labor alone could have flipped that election if we’d turned out,” said Brett Voorhies, president of the Indiana AFL-CIO. Voorhies led the analysis of that 2012 vote, which put Republican Mike Pence into the governor’s office.
During his tenure, Pence signed a repeal of the decades-old “prevailing wage” law that set union-level pay for workers on public projects.
Seen as a major setback for labor, it came after a series of Republican-led actions under Pence’s predecessor, Gov. Mitch Daniels, that ate away at the unions’ political strength.
Those included an end to collective bargaining rights for public workers and the first “right to work” law in the Midwest that outlaws mandatory union dues as a condition of employment.
Four years ago, the state AFL-CIO endorsed Gregg, but its effort to get him elected pales in comparison to the push in place now.
That year, union volunteers made 65,000 calls in the waning weeks of the campaign encouraging fellow members to vote for Gregg.
As of Friday, labor phone banks have made 260,000 calls as part of a months-long campaign that also involves social media outreach and knocking on doors to push for Gregg’s election and stress labor’s role in determining the state’s future.
The goal is 400,000 calls by Election Day, Nov. 8, to tip the scales in favor of Gregg in a close race against Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb. The most recent polls show Gregg leading Holcomb, by two to five points.
Voorhies said the AFL-CIO has invested in more technology to target voters, and is emphasizing member-to-member connections, as compared with four years ago.
“We’re hammering it to our members: This is about our livelihood and our families,” he said.
The AFL-CIO, its affiliated locals and political action committees have also donated more than $127,000 to Gregg’s campaign.
Holcomb’s campaign is dismissive of the effort.
“Democrats are the bread-and-butter for labor unions, so it’s not surprising they are putting their mouth and feet where their money is,” said Holcomb spokesman Pete Seat.
On the campaign trail, Holcomb has touted the work he did as an aide to Daniels to build support among building trades unions in 2006 for a massive road program known as Major Moves.
“I don’t think it’s monolithic,” Seat said of the labor vote. “I don’t think it’s going to be some en masse check the box for John Gregg.”
For Gregg, labor’s ground game could be the deciding factor if he is to win election in a Republican-leaning state that has given the GOP a super-majority presence in the General Assembly, said University of Evansville political scientist Robert Dion.
“If labor can flex its muscle, it could send a really strong message. It could determine the next governor and send a shot across the bow that would be heard in the Legislature, as well,” Dion said.
Overall, labor has lost the numbers it once had. Back in 1989, 1 in 5 Indiana workers were union members. Half as many are today.
Still, with about 300,000 people in 800 locals connected to the AFL-CIO, labor remains a force, Dion said. “Labor still has a lot of potential power if it can fire up its membership,” he said.
Labor efforts for Gregg have not automatically translated into canvassing for the Democrat at the top of the ballot, presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
Voorhies said it’s a matter of making priorities with limited resources. Labor groups felt they could be most effective behind Gregg, especially since Indiana isn’t expected to play a swing role in the presidential contest.
Dion noted it’s a politically shrewd choice. Indiana’s unions are wise not to “poke a stick in the eye” of their members who may support Republican Donald Trump, he said.