The U.S. Census Bureau released their annual estimates of
population change last week. The data told a familiar tale for Indiana.
Indiana very clearly struggles with population growth, and what growth
we do experience is concentrated in just a few places. However, the data
is not without bright spots.
Indiana enjoyed population growth of 31,796 in 2018, of which 40
percent was net migration. That growth rate is about 0.48 percent, which
is lower than the national growth rate of 0.62 percent last year,
itself a post-war low. In terms of raw population growth, 2018 was
beneath Indiana’s post-war and 21st century averages. For Indiana, the
post-recessionary period has been one of dramatic slowing of population
growth. Among declining counties, population loss is accelerating.
Within the state, only 15 counties grew faster than the nation as a
whole. Six of those were in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, and
accounted for 49 percent of the state’s growth. Of our fast-growing
counties, all but one were in metropolitan areas. At the other end, a
full 32 counties lost population in 2018. The remaining 45 counties
grew, but at a rate slower than the nation as a whole. These are in
relative population decline.
Population growth is not the sole measure of the health of an
economy, but it is the best. Without population growth, any growth in
the local economy must come through a more productive labor force.
However, productive workers tend to move towards places that better
reward their productivity. Thus, population decline signals a declining
workforce in both quality and quantity. This is among the most enduring
lessons of economic geography. This implies a more difficult future for
non-urban places in Indiana.
Population change also affects the cost of public services. The most
acute example of this is schools. Among the third of counties losing
population are perhaps 100 school corporations in which overhead costs
prevent them from affording basic technology and many college prep
courses. Population decline will magnify this problem. Success in many
of Indiana’s communities depends upon how wisely they handle this
challenge.
The biggest loser in the state was the Muncie metro area. Delaware
County lost 617 residents, a full half percent of the population.
Indeed, the most beleaguered region was East Central Indiana, where
seven counties lost 0.48 percent of their population last year.
Population loss across this region is accelerating.
The greater Terre Haute region is likewise shrinking. As an aside,
Muncie, Terre Haute and Bloomington remain active metropolitan areas
solely because of their state universities. Most other declining places
are scattered across the state. Some are urban, such as Lake County, but
most fill the spots between the larger cities.
Overall, population changes in Indiana paint a very clear picture.
Large, amenity-rich urban places are largely doing well. Mid-sized
cities face very mixed prognosis. Some, like Lafayette are thriving,
while places like Muncie, Terre Haute, Marion and Richmond face
deepening challenges.
The counties recently doing better include Howard, St. Joseph, Floyd
and Clark counties, which are all growing for different reasons. Kokomo
(Howard Co.) and South Bend (St. Joseph Co.) benefit from aggressive
urban renewal led by two mayors whose reputation is deservedly
spreading. Floyd and Clark counties are beginning to experience the
benefit of recent infrastructure improvements connecting Indiana to
Kentucky. These places rival the northern Indianapolis suburbs in growth
rates that are likely to be sustained for decades.
There is also one overall bright spot in the population
data—immigration. Nearly one-third of all new Hoosiers last year were
foreign immigrants. For every 10 Americans who chose to move to Indiana
last year, another 25 foreigners re-located within our borders. In fact,
of the 32 counties that experienced population decline last year, 29
saw an increase in immigration. But, only four of the 32 declining
counties experienced net migration of Americans.
The immigration effect is broad and sustained. Only a dozen counties
lost international immigrants in 2018, and across those counties, the
loss was only 53 persons. Marion County alone had 55 times as many new
immigrants as all the counties who lost them combined. This trend
matters everywhere. In beleaguered Delaware County, this decade saw
natural population growth of a paltry 30 residents. There were 1,243 new
immigrants over this same period.
The 2018 population estimates were not kind to Indiana. The one
clearly good piece of news is that our state remains a place of
opportunity for men and women from abroad who wish to become Hoosiers.
We might need to keep this in mind as we ponder Indiana’s future.