Indiana’s top elected officials offered prayers and thoughts for former President Donald Trump after an attempted assassination on Saturday injured his ear and left one attendee dead.
But the shock and horror of the incident has now transformed into a very real political reality that could significantly redirect the trajectory of the presidential campaign, explained Chad Kinsella, a political scientist and director of Ball State University’s Bowen Center for Public Affairs.
“It is just a horrible thing and a tragedy, but regardless, the political implications are undeniable,” he said.
The key question now is how will Trump talk about the shooting that nearly killed him, argued Aaron Dusso, a political scientist at Indiana University Indianapolis.
If the former president uses the incident to unify the nation and condemn political violence, he explained, that message could resonate with voters in Indiana and across the country who are on the fence about his ability to lead the nation.
“I think that would shock a lot of people, and certainly undecided voters might want to take another look at him if they see a different side of Donald Trump,” Dusso said.
However, if Trump paints the assassination attempt as a political attack and doubles down on his scorchedearth rhetoric, it could drive away moderate Republicans already hesitant about him, he noted.
“If he ultimately ends up giving a pretty standard Trump-style speech, I think you’ve probably lost any momentum you might get out of this,” Dusso said.
But any rhetoric could easily be overshadowed by the dramatic image of the former president pumping a defiant fist in the air with blood streaks across his face following the immediate aftermath of the shooting, argued Kinsella.
“That’s that kind of imagery that wins people over,” he said. “It a very defiant image and kind of fires people up.”
It also widens the public perception that Trump can handle the job more than Biden following the president’s disastrous debate performance last month that has left members of his own party calling for him to step aside.
A split-screen of Trump surviving an assassination attempt with Biden vacantly staring on the debate stage is sure to leave an indelible mark on voters as they head to the polls, Kinsella argued.
“That’s pretty powerful stuff,” he said. “Images can go a long way for people and have a big effect moving forward.”
There’s also the real possibility that the attempted assassination of Trump won’t have much impact at all once Election Day rolls around four months from now.
Dusso said most voters long ago decided who they will vote for, and little will change their minds. A case in point: even after Biden’s dismal debate, his poll numbers remained virtually unchanged, according to an NPR/PBS survey conducted earlier this month.
“People are just going to vote their partisanship, so voter turnout becomes a critical thing here,” Dusso said. “It’s not about persuading people. It’s just getting your people out to vote.”
That’s especially true in Indiana. Trump is almost certain to beat Biden here, but which topline candidate can attract more Hoosiers the ballot box will have a major impact on downticket races, Dusso explained.
A swell of support for Trump could bring more Republicans to the polls, while the dwindling excitement for Biden might keep Democrats away.
That doesn’t bode well for a party already facing an uphill battle this year to beat highprofile Republican candidates for governor and attorney general, he argued.
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