By Annie Goeller, Daily Journal of Johnson County staff writer
The county's unemployment rate continued to rise in February, but fewer people lost their jobs than in previous months, a sign that economists said could be hopeful.
The smaller increase in people losing their jobs combined with other improving economic factors could be showing the start of a rebound, economists said.
Johnson County's unemployment rate hit 8 percent in February, with 5,860 residents out of work, according to the Indiana Department of Workforce Development.
The new rate is another record for the county, and the number of people looking for work is nearly double the rate of February 2008, when 4.1 percent of workers were unemployed.
But the month-to-month increase was less than in previous months.
In January, the unemployment rate jumped more than a percentage point. In February, the increase was less than half of a percentage point.
About 330 workers lost their jobs in February, compared with about 1,000 workers in January.
The trend is the same across the state and nation.
Statewide, unemployment grew to 10.1 percent in February, from 9.9 percent in January. Across the country, 8.9 percent of workers were out of a job, compared with 8.5 percent in January.
That could be a hopeful sign that companies have cut about as far as they can, economist Morton Marcus said.
The news comes within days of area companies' announcements of hundreds of layoffs and as construction work could begin to pick up again with the start of better weather.
The newest numbers don't reflect recent layoff decisions.
For example, the February jobless numbers wouldn't reflect the decision by KYB Manufacturing, one of Franklin's biggest employers, to cuts its work force to one shift in early March.
And the decision this month by Columbus Components Group to lay off more than 300 isn't in the jobless numbers, either.
The unemployment rate also lags behind other factors in the economy, meaning the new rate isn't showing what is currently happening in local businesses, he said.
"The economy today might be picking up a bit, but in terms of unemployment, we won't see it for a few months," Marcus said.
Companies wait months after sales decline before making the decision to lay people off and they also wait months if sales increase before hiring people back, Marcus said.
If the unemployment rate starts to decline as construction work picks up, the numbers likely won't reflect a change until April, he said.
But the numbers are a part of overall changes for the better recently in economic news, University of Indianapolis finance professor Matt Will said.
Along with a slowing growth of unemployment, recent numbers show that more people are getting new mortgages and an increase in the sale of durable goods, which are manufactured products expected to last at least three years, such as refrigerators and machinery, he said.
Those are all signs of an uptick in the economy, which Will believes shows that the downfall has already bottomed out.
But that doesn't mean the numbers won't change in the future, including a rise in unemployment, he said.
Will believes the unemployment rate will continue to grow until the fall, when he expects it will peak.
But the February numbers are encouraging, showing increases in the unemployment rate far less than in past months, he said.
And he believes communities will have increased construction this year, meaning more people will get work.