South Shore Line extension hinges on new population projections

BY KEITH BENMAN, Times of Northwest Indiana
kbenman@nwitimes.com

The operator of the South Shore Line has begun its campaign to get local transportation planners to accept population projections vital to getting funding for a South Shore extension.

A railroad official described how vital the new population projections are to the extension effort at a committee meeting Tuesday of the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission.

"If you use traditional projections, the project is frozen," Joe Crnkovich told the committee on Tuesday. Crnkovich is a grant administrator for the Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation District, the rail line's operator.

Projections of population growth traditionally used in the region do not show enough population growth to justify the building of an extension to either Lowell or Valparaiso. But the newer projections would bolster an argument to extend the rail line.

Traditionally, NIRPC has used population forecasts provided by the Indiana Business Research Center, NIRPC transportation planner Bill Brown said. Almost two years ago, a consultant for NICTD, Policy Analytics, developed a new forecast that shows much faster population growth for the region than the research center figures.

The new forecast is based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey and takes into account recent migration to Northwest Indiana.

Shawn Pettit, a NIRPC member and Merrillville councilman, asked if the new forecasts could endanger road projects planned for the region that are dependent on the traditional population forecasts.

Brown said that could be the case. If the new forecasts show more people living here, it could put those projects out of conformity with federal air quality standards, Brown said.

The good news, Brown said, is that the state's consultant on the proposed Illiana Expressway also has favored using the set of statistics that NICTD favors.

"Consultants for both projects independently have come up with higher forecasts, and they want those forecasts approved for those projects," Brown said.

Examples of projects that could be subject to new air quality calculations are the building of a new segment of Dickinson Road in Chesterton, new turn lanes on U.S. 20 in East Chicago and center lane turn lanes to be added to 61st Avenue in Hobart.

Brown said Wednesday if NIRPC adopts the new figures, they would probably have to be used in air quality calculations within a couple of years.

NIRPC would only know if road projects are in conformity with federal standards once the new population forecasts are included in air quality calculations, Brown told the committee.