Experts say economic conditions may be “tough for a while” in Bartholomew County as warning signs emerge that the North American trucking industry is hitting the brakes amid heightened economic uncertainty due to President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff war.
Any slowdown in the trucking industry could have implications for Bartholomew County’s economy, which is heavily rooted in automotive manufacturing, including for heavy- and medium-duty trucks, analysts said.
Cummins Inc., which is headquartered in Columbus and is the largest employer in the area, is a major supplier of engines and other components for heavy- and medium-duty trucks and buses in North America.
Since Trump initially signed executive orders imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China in February, analysts have significantly cut their outlook for the North American trucking industry and freight, according to company officials.
In February, Columbus-based ACT Research was projecting that North American production of Class 8 trucks would slightly exceed 300,000 units this year, company officials said. That estimate has since been revised downward to approximately 255,000 units — a decline of around 15%.
Class 8 trucks are often referred to as heavy-duty trucks and include vehicles such as big rigs, dump trucks, cement trucks, among others.
“From a transportation perspective, especially a truck transportation perspective, manufacturing and housing are two of those segments of the economy that really drive a lot of freight,” Ken Vieth, partner and president of ACT Research. “…In a matter of two months, our freight creation expectations for 2025 went from 2.7% to 0.5%.”
“There is a strong correlation between demand for vehicles and carriers making money, and I think, (the first quarter) is shaping up to be a disastrous quarter for truckers in the United States and, by extension, North America,” Vieth added later in the interview.
Trucks remain the dominant method of freight transport in the United States by weight, hauling everything from grain to gravel. They also move the majority of high-value goods including food, electronics and vehicles, according to federal data. As of 2023, imports made up 40% of the freight tonnage transported by truck within the country.
A downturn in freight activity could dampen demand for new trucks and fleet upgrades, potentially leading to reduced orders for engines and components produced by local manufacturers, experts said.
This past week, some of Cummins’ biggest customers reported declines in revenue and drops in sales and orders for trucks in North America during the first three months of the year.
Paccar Inc., Traton Group and Daimler Truck AG all reported declines in revenue and North American sales during the first quarter, according to the companies’ earnings reports. In its 2024 annual report, Cummins listed those three companies as the principal customers of its heavy-duty and medium-duty truck and bus engines.
Stellantis, which makes RAM trucks, including some with Cummins engines, also reported a decline in revenue and sales in North America during the first three months of the year.
“That’s got to be significant for Cummins,” said Steven Mohler, assistant professor of management at IU Columbus.
On Wednesday, Paccar Inc., a Washington-based manufacturer that makes trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF brands, reported a 14% decline in revenue during the January-March quarter, according to the company’s earnings report. Sales of Kenworth and Peterbilt truck in the United States and Canada fell 25% during the first quarter, the company said.
“The North American truck market is being affected by uncertain economic conditions and the impact of new tariffs,” Paccar Executive Vice President Kevin Baney in a statement on Wednesday.
On Monday, German truck maker Traton reported a 10% decline in revenue during the first quarter. At the same time, the company said its North American truck order intake declined 35% and sales dropped 12% during the quarter due to what it described as “uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policy negatively impacted incoming orders in addition to the contraction in the freight market.”
“The current developments triggered by the decisions of the new U.S. administration, in particular the announcement and implementation of comprehensive tariffs, have led to an increased level of uncertainty in the global economy,” Traton said in its earnings report.
On April 8, Daimler Truck AG reported a 16% decline in truck sales in North America.
Stellantis, for its part, reported a 14% decline in revenue and a 20% drop in shipments in North America during the first quarter and suspended its financial guidance “due to tariff-related uncertainties including policy, market impacts and the company’s evolving response.”
Currently, it is unclear the extent to which sliding sales reported by Paccar, Traton and Daimler impacted Cummins’ business during the quarter.
The Columbus-based company is scheduled to release its first quarter results on Monday.
At the same time, many economists say that Trump’s massive import taxes — and the erratic way he’s rolled them out — will hurt growth in the second half of the year and that recession risks are rising, The Associated Press reported.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the economy shrank at a 0.3% pace during the first quarter, largely due to Trump’s trade policies.
On Tuesday, the consumer confidence index — which measures Americans’ confidence in the economy — slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll, according to wire reports.
Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.
“I think it’s going to be tough for a while,” Mohler said. “Columbus is so manufacturing-oriented that small adjustments in the U.S. economy are really accentuated in our economy.”
“Columbus is a lot more volatile than Indiana, than the U.S., as far as economics, because of our 50% dependence on durable goods, on manufacturing,” Mohler said.
While uncertainty attributed to Trump’s tariffs continues to grip the U.S. economy, the congressional delegation representing parts of Bartholomew County have voted to prevent taking action to contradict the White House on tariffs.
On Wednesday, Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., and Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., voted against a resolution that would have ended the national emergency that Trump declared to impose tariffs.
On April 9, Rep. Jefferson Shreve, R-Ind., and Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., voted in favor of a resolution that prohibits the House from forcing a vote on legislation to rescind Trump’s national emergency until at least September.
In the meantime, experts say they expect tariffs will cause economic pain locally.
“I think the worst part about what’s going on with tariffs is really this is self-inflicted economic damage, and the policies are likely to boost inflation and stifle economic growth,” Vieth said.
“If you look at Columbus or Bartholomew County or the Midwest broadly, there’s a lot of manufacturing that goes on in this area,” Veith added. “So, we would expect that this area is going to feel the pain as much as anybody.”