OPINION: There is no joy in latest county data

Cynthia Cyphon calls me for "insights" on the latest county statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  I seem to be a fixture in her Rolodex (which was how names, addresses, and phone numbers were stored in pre-historic times).

"So what's doing with these numbers?" she asks.  "I see Hamilton County, the wealthiest county in the state, is not anymore."

I go out on the deck with my lapdog and my laptop.  This is going to be long phone conversation. "Cynthia, get your head around this," I say. "Per capita personal income (PCPI) is used widely as an indicator of economic well-being.  That's why you're calling.  (I heard a grunt of assent from the other end.)  But we often forget what PCPI is.  It's a fraction where personal income is divided by population.  Personal income includes wages and salaries, the income of proprietors, plus employer-provided health insurance, dividends and interest income, social security benefits, and other types of income.  It reflects income from current production and excludes sales out of last year's crops, capital gains, or cashing in retirement accounts. It is not the same as taxable or disposable income."

"Yeah, yeah, you told me all that before," Cynthia says.  "Just give me the headline stuff, not the footnotes."

"OK", I say.  "Here are the headlines. Boone County has replaced Hamilton as the state leader in PCPI.  Where Indiana's PCPI is 12.1% below the national average, Boone is almost 27% higher than the U.S. and Hamilton is right behind at 24% above the U.S.  Actually, Hamilton had the worst record in the state for PCPI growth over the past six years.  It had an annual average 1.4% decrease, adjusted for inflation, compared to statewide growth of 0.6% and 1.2% for the U.S."

"Good stuff," Cynthia says.  "Anytime the leader falls, most folks feel good."

"Wait," I say, "all is not as it seems. With an inflation-adjusted 3.8% annual growth rate for personal income from 2000 to 2006, Hamilton County was the second fastest growing county in the state. Boone led at 4.0%.  But Hamilton was also the state leader in population growth (5.3%).  Here Hendricks held second place at 3.6%.

"Since PCPI is a fraction with population on the bottom, a fast rising population will slow PCPI growth while slow increases or declines in population can make PCPI grow rapidly. Hamilton County 'suffered' from a population growth rate that exceeded its personal income growth and thus had that 1.4% decline in PCPI.

"Tell me more," she implores.

"Well," I say ponderously, "In 2006 PCPI in Indiana grew by 1.7% and the nation by 2.6% after adjustment for inflation.  Five counties (Fayette, Kosciusko, Tippecanoe, Carroll and LaGrange) had declines in real PCPI in 2006.

"Orange, Newton and Daviess Counties led the state in growth of PCPI in 2006.  Orange owes this distinction to its casino and hotel construction.  Yet for the five years ending in 2006, Orange County ranked 66^th in the state with no real PCPI growth."

"Fine," Cynthia says.  "Now get to the big finale."

I study the numbers before saying, "In 2006, 27 Indiana counties had lower PCPI than in 2000.   In 2006, seven of Indiana's 92 counties had PCPI above the national average.  In 2000, the number was nine; Bartholomew and Hendricks lost their honored positions.  Put another way, 92% of Indiana's counties have PCPI below the national average.  On top of that, between 2000 and 2006, 72 Indiana counties lost ground compared to the nation while only 20 gained on that average."

"So you're saying?" Cynthia asks.

"I'm saying good-bye.  The numbers speak for themselves. Now I'll collect the dog and go back under my rock," I say breaking the connection.  She'll call again, someday.