Any steel mill work stoppage would impact NWI economy

No agreement has been reached in the ongoing talks between USW and ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel Corp., and the economic impact potentially could be much larger if a strike, lockout, or work stoppage were to take place at Northwest Indiana's biggest mills.

So far, it's been like an unstoppable force versus an unmovable object. The steelmakers have wanted to slash health care benefits at a time when they're getting hammered by cheap imports, and the union said it won't give up hard-earned benefits that would result in effective pay cuts for steelworkers. Both sides have been willing to remain at the bargaining table thus far.

U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal together employ around 17,000 workers in the Calumet Region. That's 5.3 percent of the total jobs held by residents in the Gary metropolitan area, according to Department of Workforce Development figures. The steel mill jobs also are among the best-paying in the region and economic studies by the American Iron and Steel Institute have found a single steelworker job at the mill supports another seven jobs, such as at restaurants and convenience stores.

By that metric, the steel industry supports 119,000 jobs in Northwest Indiana, or about 37 percent in the Gary metro area.

There would be a greater economic impact if a work stoppage took place at the mills, but its scope would depend entirely on how long it stretched on for, said Micah Pollak, an assistant professor of economics at Indiana University Northwest. Thousands with good-paying steelworker jobs would cut back drastically on spending, getting by on a strike fund and personal savings.

"If it's a short-term strike, you're probably not going to see a big effect because people are going to anticipate it," he said. "You're going to have money saved up. They're going to cut back, but for the most part won't change their lifestyle. If it drags on, the stakes get higher. If it drags on a long time, it hurts both sides eventually."

Employment at the mills is nowhere what it once was when 30,000 people worked at Gary Works alone, before everything became more automated. But they are quality jobs that account for a lot of the consumer spending in Northwest Indiana.

"They are bringing in a large share of the income because they get paid much higher," Pollak said. "The average steel job is worth two or three retail jobs. They might account for 15 percent to 20 percent of income (in the Region)."

The USW and steelmakers have broken from talks over the holidays and will return to the bargaining table on Nov. 29.