COMMENTARY: Pence's problem with women

That’s one of the takeaways from the new Howey Politics Indiana Poll that shows the Republican Pence suffered collateral damage from the divisive religious freedom law that sparked howls of protest.

The poll shows the first-term governor plunging by double-digits in both likeability and job approval, following his signing of the law and his failed attempts in the national spotlight to defend it as something other than a license to discriminate against gays and lesbians.

The law itself was the problem: The Religious Freedom Restoration Act was billed by supporters as needed protection for believers. But Pence had a hard time making that case.

It was seen by many of those polled as an unneeded fight to pick – and one that will cost the state long-term economic damage due to what Howey Politics publisher Brian Howey calls the “voracious kickback” from the corporate community and others.

Almost 60 percent of those surveyed said the law wasn’t necessary. Less than half of those identifying themselves as Republicans saw a need for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. The same was true for evangelical Christians.

Among college-educated women, a whopping 73 percent said there was no need for Indiana to pass the law. Only 34 percent of college-educated men said the same thing.

“I was really struck by the tremendous gender gap,” said Christine Matthews, the Washington, DC-based pollster who conducted the Howey poll.

Matthews, whose past clients include Pence’s predecessor, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, found Pence’s image is now polarizing among Indiana women – something from which he didn’t significantly suffer before.

Past polls, including hers and Ball State University’s annual Hoosier Survey, have found Gov. Pence enjoyed somewhat similar support from men and women.

But that was when he was staying away from the hot-button social conservative issues that he was better known for when he was in Congress, said Ball State political scientist Joe Losco.

Matthews said she’s been tracking Pence’s relationship with women as his public disputes with the Democratic Glenda Ritz, the state’s elected public-schools chief, have heated up. His efforts to circumvent her power haven’t gone over well with women, Matthews said.

“Then RFRA blew the top off it,” Matthews said. “The bottom has fallen out with college-educated women.”

That’s a tough crowd to lose as Pence moves into re-election mode.

Especially if Hillary Clinton, who Matthews said polls very well among college-age women, is the 2016 presidential nominee. “I think it will have an effect down-ticket,” Matthews said.

Republicans on the national level have been fretting about female voters for some time now. A report commissioned by two major GOP groups last year said their polling found that 49 percent of women view Republicans unfavorably. (39 percent of women view Democrats unfavorably.)

The report, obtained by POLITICO, said female voters view the party as “intolerant,” “lacking in compassion” and “stuck in the past.” Or, as one female Republican strategist put: “Old, white, right, and out of touch” men.

Dan Constron of American Action Network, one of the report sponsors, told POLITICO: “It’s no surprise that conservatives have more work to do with women.”

It will be interesting to see if Pence engages in that work and who helps him do it. During the heat of the RFRA debate, Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspersmann was dispatched to appear on CNN to defend the law. Then she faded into the background, and it's Pence who remained its public face.

In the Howey poll, Matthews lined up some Democrats, including Ritz, against Pence to see who voters liked best. Pence came out ahead, but not by much.

It was Ritz’s numbers that were the “eye-popper,” said Matthews. She came within a few close percentage points in a hypothetical race against Pence. Ritz has insisted she’s not going to run for governor. But if things changed, Matthews said, “Ritz may be the one who should scare Republicans most.”