The race for Indiana governor appears more competitive than once thought, and some political observers are keeping a close watch in the final days before the general election.
Republican Mike Braun is running against Democrat Jennifer McCormick. Donald Rainwater is running as a Libertarian candidate. Christopher Stried is running as an independent write-in candidate.
Among those paying close attention is Matt Bergbower, political science professor at Indiana State University. “The governor’s race looks competitive to me” between McCormick and Braun, he said.
Some of the races he’s watching are not competitive, in his opinion, including the U.S. presidential election and U.S. Senate race, both of which are quite likely to go Republican in the Hoosier state, Bergbower said.
But in the governor’s race, he cites McCormick’s name recognition, as she previously ran for statewide office and became Indiana’s Republican Superintendent for Public Instruction. (Indiana now has an appointed secretary of education and McCormick has changed
parties). Also, Libertarian Rainwater, who took 11.4% of the vote in the 2020 governor’s race, could pull votes away from Braun, Bergbower said.
“I’m thinking Braun is going to win,” Bergbower said. But, “You never say never in Indiana.”
He pointed to Democratic challenger Glenda Ritz’ upset over incumbent Republican Tony Bennett in the 2012 race for Indiana superintendent of public instruction.
In a Terre Haute stop Monday, McCormick said she believes momentum is in her favor with just one week to go before the general election.
“We are statistically tied in the polls,” based on internal polling, she said in an interview at Federal Coffee in downtown Terre Haute on Monday afternoon.
“I know from talking to people inside the Republican Party that they are seeing the same thing we are in the polls,” she said. “That’s why you are seeing negative ads against me and negative ads against some other candidates, because they (Republicans) are nervous. I think they are feeling the same thing we are — the energy is our way and the urgency is on our side and the issues are on our side.”
Braun’s campaign responded with the following statement: “Mike Braun is closing strong as Hoosiers embrace his attention to kitchen table issues to improve their lives, while hopelessly liberal Democrat Jennifer McCormick is being exposed for her support of the same failed liberal policies and politicians of the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration,” said Josh Kelley, senior adviser with the Braun campaign.
In Monday’s interview, McCormick said she’s traveled to all 92 counties.
“We’ve got the support of Republicans, Democrats, independents — a lot of Hoosiers who want change. They want balance and they want common sense,” she said.
The Republican Mike Braun/Micah Beckwith ticket represents extremism, she said. “What I know from listening to Hoosiers is they don’t like extremism. They don’t like the fear and the chaos that comes along with that.”
Voters she’s talked to have concerns about Beckwith, a self proclaimed Christian nationalist. They disagree with Braun and Beckwith’s support of Indiana’s extreme abortion ban and the Republican candidates’ lack of support for public education, McCormick said.
Issues of concern to Hoosiers include women’s reproductive freedom, access to affordable health care for everyone, education and good paying jobs, she said.
“I hear a lot about reproductive freedom” and opposition to Indiana’s extreme abortion law, she said.
People worry about losing other freedoms as well, McCormick said. “People are very concerned about okay, so they started with women, what’s next and who else will be impacted.”
She hears a lot about education “regarding the lack of respect for teachers and the lack of emphasis and support for public education.”
Among the momentum moving in her direction includes campaign funding.
The Democratic Governors Association continues to invest heavily in her campaign. It gave another $275,000 to McCormick on Friday, bringing their total investment into her campaign to just over $1.9 million this month, the Indianapolis Star reported.
The Republican Governors Association has given Braun $1.5 million this month, according to an Oct. 26 Associated Press article.
The AP article also stated, “Braun has trumped McCormick in advertising overall, spending more than $13 million this year on ads, which includes the time period of the GOP primary, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks campaign spending. He’s spent more than three times what McCormick has on advertising.”
The AP article further said, “The dynamics on the Republican ticket plus strong campaigns from the Democrats have caused forecasters to hedge on their certainty” that the governor’s race will go Republican.
“The race is more competitive relative to expectations,” Greg Shufeldt, a University of Indianapolis political science, professor told the AP.
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