East central Indiana continues to lose population, a trend that’s likely to continue.
The U.S. Census Bureau released its 2012 population estimates Thursday, showing a population loss between 2011 and 2012 for Fayette, Franklin, Wayne and Union counties.
Fayette County had a 0.53 percent decrease in population from July 2011 to July 2012, according to Census Bureau estimates, the second-highest total in the four-county region. Union County lost 1.51 percent.
Wayne County lost an estimated 0.51 percent of its population while Franklin County had the lowest figures, losing 0.06 percent.
It’s a trend that has been familiar to both Fayette and Wayne counties, which have both experienced roughly three decades of population loss since 1980, according to data from the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. It will continue into the future for the whole of east central Indiana, said Michael Hicks, director of Ball State University’s Center for Business and Economic Research.
“The continued population loss is not really a surprise,” Hicks said. “In December, we forecast (east central Indiana) to continue to lose population through 2025.”
Such a decrease in the area’s population could be illustrative of deeper problems than just people moving out because the grass is greener somewhere else, Hicks said. It could show that many aspects of a community – such as schools or infrastructure, for instance – need to be improved to attract businesses to those areas, which in turn would attract workers, thus resulting in more residents.
“Efforts to attract business are fine, but until the underlying factors that influence business location decisions are addressed, the results of business attraction efforts are likely to disappoint,” Hicks said.
Among those factors, according to Hicks, is the quality of schools.
“Amenities include lots of different things to different households, but almost ubiquitous among amenities that affect migration are school quality,” he said. “Here, (east central Indiana) has deep problems.”
Hicks said under-performing schools in the region have a direct impact on the labor force. His comments did not address specific schools.
“Schools under-perform, which feed lower-skilled workers into a labor market, which is quite competitive,” Hicks said. “Lower quality schools keep both new households and businesses away from a region.”
That is important to consider when trying to attract a business or residents to a county.
“Of course jobs matter a lot, but increasingly we see businesses locating to places where they can find workers dominating the trend of workers seeking jobs,” Hicks said. “Or, as I prefer to say, ‘In the short run workers move to businesses, but in the long run businesses move to workers.’”
The trend in decreasing population is not limited to east central Indiana. Several regions of Indiana show a decline in residents, according to estimates and analysis from the IBRC.
Overall, 54 of the state’s 92 counties saw a dip in their population. The state as a whole experienced a 0.32 percent increase in total population growth. It’s the sixth-consecutive year the state’s growth rate has declined.
The biggest boom in population appeared to be in counties either just north or south of Marion County and Indianapolis.
Hamilton County led the state with a 2.2 percent growth rate, followed by Boone County with 2 percent.
Bartholomew County, which includes Columbus, found itself with the third-fastest population growth rate in the state at 1.7 percent. That is attributed to the county being ranked among the top five metro areas in the country in 2010 and 2011 in gross domestic product growth, according to the Indiana Business Research Center.
Slow population growth has equated to slow economic recovery, said Matt Kinghorn, state demographer for the IBRC.
“With a few notable exceptions, population growth is proving to be the ultimate lagging indicator in our steady yet slow economic recovery,” Kinghorn said in a statement. “However, the experience of a community like Bartholomew County shows that a dynamic local economy will attract new residents.”
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